000
acus01 kwns 190059
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 190057
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Valid 190100z - 191200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the central and southern High
Plains...
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across part of northeast Idaho and
northwest Montana....
..central and southern High Plains...
A strengthening southerly low level jet along the southern/Central High plains is
expected to support upscale growth of one or more mesoscale convective system/S yet this
evening...with one affecting the OK/Texas panhandles...and a second one
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas. A potential third mesoscale convective system may develop into western
Nebraska. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats.
..NE Idaho/northwest Montana...
This outlook will maintain a slight risk across this region.
Although parts of this area have been stabilized by ongoing
convection...an increase in forcing for ascent as the Pacific
northwest through moves inland should promote further strong
updrafts. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.
For additional short term details...refer to Storm Prediction Center mesoscale
discussion 1125.
..lower Ohio Valley...
A convective line will continue moving southward into Kentucky and weaken in
intensity as this activity encounters a more stable air mass.
Meanwhile...a few additional storms will be possible in the wake of
this line of storms across southeastern Illinois/southwestern ind...attendant to stronger
forcing for ascent as a shortwave trough tracks east-southeastward through the Ohio
Valley. Weak instability/shear values will further limit the severe
weather threat this evening.
..Carolinas southwestward to southern parts of the central Gulf Coast states...
A shortwave trough will continue to move off the middle Atlantic coast
this evening...while ascent along the trailing portion of this
trough supports additional thunderstorms in vicinity of a NE-SW oriented front
advancing eastward through the central/eastern Carolinas. Residual pockets
of instability along the full extent of this discussion area could
support additional isolated strong wind gusts this evening. The
greatest threat area should reside across eastern NC...as this region
will be closer to stronger ascent aloft and 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear.
.Peters.. 06/19/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 182321
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 182320
mtz000-190045-
Mesoscale discussion 1125
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Areas affected...western Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326...
Valid 182320z - 190045z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326
continues.
Summary...large hail remains the greatest severe threat with storms
across the northern rockies/High Plains this evening.
Discussion...numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed across ww326
early this evening. This activity appears to be evolving
along/ahead of leading edge of stronger forcing associated with
Pacific northwest upper trough. Diffluent flow aloft will prove favorable
for renewed convection off the higher terrain of southwestern Montana which
should lift northward into current watch. Large hail...potentially
significant with the strongest storms east of the mountains...is the
primary severe threat.
.Darrow.. 06/18/2013
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...tfx...mso...
Latitude...Lon 46171412 48961435 48951038 46181036 46171412
