Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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I agree 90L has some impressive clouds with it, but unless the COC can get all the way out into the BOC, I don't think it will make it all the way to TS again. I also don't want to imagine how deep it may have gotten if it wasn't over land as much as it has been. That's a powerful little circulation centre there.
On the tropical waves coming off the African coast, I seem to recall quite a number of similarly, or even more, impressive waves early in the season last year as well. However, last year the CAtl conditions remained so unfavorable that even as far down the alphabet as Karen systems just couldn't survive. The interesting question for this year is whether the shear and ULLs etc will relent early in the season so that these waves can survive and even thrive on the crossing. If so, that prediction of 15/8/4 could become a reality.
TTYL
yes i know ike and that will bear watching....it could turn ito something really big....stormkat
Time will tell....
Don't forget CLP is the climatology model. In previous seasons storms forming at this time have been prone to head almost due north towards TX/LA . . .
till 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season begins
One other thing to remember about this year is that the neither the Atlantic nor the Caribbean have produced a system so far. 90L originated in the EPAC from the remnants of Alma and would not exist today but for the climatologically early start in the Pacific.
IMO 90L should not be considered as indicative of anything for the Atl season. Further, even in years that got off to early June starts in the Atlantic basin there have been periods of weeks after that with little or no activity.
13hrs59mins
till 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season begins
Props to KEEPEROFTHEGATE...he's been on here all off-season with the countdown...it's almost here!
If it just scrapes into the BOC, I think the proximity to land will hold development to a minimum. It needs to make a fair loop out there to benefit. 'Twill be interesting to see if it does so or if, following GFDL, it sticks close to the coast.
Do they mean 90L still as 90L or 90L as leftover energy to possibly form 91L?
BTW, in case people did not see, I am the same person as HurricaneGeek, just under a new handle.
Thanks.
Wishcasting for rain in East Lake Palm Harbor, FL.
Go Eagles, MasterForecaster!
I agree but it came from the Pacific
The most interesting thing about 90L for me in terms of forecasting is that quite a number of the models did forecast a low pressure system crossing Central America and reforming in the Car / GoM.
I'm still looking towards the CV season as the focus of major activity.
Ike,
I agree but it came from the Pacific
True....odd track for a system.
ya going to be an interesting one.
Yes, the models did but they also had a very strong storm over Florida this weekend !
Look at post 1261
Hi Baha
Yes, the models did but they also had a very strong storm over Florida this weekend !
You're right..the GFS did...now it's latching back on to possible GOM development in the 10 day time period...ECMWF is too.....
You know my opinion of models. While there is no denying their usefulness I pay very little attention to them beyond 48 to 60 hrs out.
I was trying to say I don't see 90L in May as an indicator of abnormally high levels of June activity. But I think (now that u have raised the point LOL) that models do have some value, so long as you don't depend on them EXCLUSIVELY. It's like getting a second opinion.
lol ike....im also worried about the huge blocking high that will form over texas in the next 7 days and leave us wide open for business...im talking about la miss and alabama....this is not good so early in june guys....stormkat
I've noticed the wind flow from the SSE in about a week....and the isobars are rather close.
am a jackass now
I tend to think of them as a list of possible scenarios. They could happen, but not necessarily.
Anyway, I'm out. Ya'll have a good one!
I see that to stormkat. There is a fair amount of energy trapped south of this ridge axis and regardless of what happens with the remnants of Alma there will remain some potential for development in that area. The erosion of the western periphery of the ridge as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS just might allow this energy to stream north.
These models are gonna drive us all crazy this summer...
You can't help but look at them...sometimes their right on...like Dean and Felix.
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whats see oh gets too 30,000 commats 1st this year
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