Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alma dies without causing a major disaster; tornadoes rip Midwest
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:03 PM GMT am 30. Mai 2008 +1
Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.

There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.


Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.

Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.

The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.

Jeff Masters
TIV 1 under thunderstorm (MikeTheiss)
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
TIV 1 under thunderstorm
Osbourne Kansas Tornado (MikeTheiss)
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Osbourne Kansas Tornado
Storm Chasers with eerie skies (MikeTheiss)
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Storm Chasers with eerie skies
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Categories: Tornado
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801. Drakoen 04:19 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
800. moonlightcowboy 4:17 AM GMT on May 31, 2008 Hide this comment.
Drak, what kind of trouble are you having with RAMSDIS?


I can't access the animations. They restricted it for their personnel.
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
802. scottsvb 04:19 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
OK listen up guys...although the waves off africa look impressive and nice to see... they will fizzle in the cold water temps..chances this time of year of anything making it to even 40W is less than 10%. Main features will be the carribean,gulf and bahamas till after the 4th of July.
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803. StormJunkie 04:20 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Only on EAtl right Drak?
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804. moonlightcowboy 04:20 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Gotcha, Drak. I forgot about those limitations there.
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805. Drakoen 04:20 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
I must say I am impressed with this African easterly wave though I won't embellish it because sometimes these things are easy come easy go especially this time of year. We will see what happens.
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806. StormJunkie 04:20 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
cold water temps

??? Area is way above climo no?
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807. Drakoen 04:21 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
803. StormJunkie 4:20 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Only on EAtl right Drak?


Yea.
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808. pottery 04:22 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Scott.
Thats very authoratative of you, my dear fellow.
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809. ajcamsmom2 04:23 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
781. Weather456 11:01 PM CDT on May 30, 2008
So how many waves did they have by this time last year? I think we have gotten our fair share of rain in S. LA this month...North Louisiana had a great deal of flooding...So, does that mean we are safe this season, cuss it really hasn't been that hot either???
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810. moonlightcowboy 04:23 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
I'll be glad when RAMSDIS completes their new beta site. But, there are some features available in the old site that lets me do this:

RAMSDIS thermal IR loop


And, I'm not sure I'm going to be able to do this on the new site.
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811. Drakoen 04:23 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
808. pottery 4:22 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Scott.
Thats very authoratative of you, my dear fellow.


I was wondering what SJ was quoting lol. The ignore list is one of the best things WU has on here.
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812. weatherboykris 04:24 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Evening guys.
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813. scottsvb 04:25 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
you can monitor that area.. but nothing will develop...point blank..sorry it just wont happen
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814. weatherboykris 04:26 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
806. StormJunkie 4:20 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
cold water temps

??? Area is way above climo no?


Still a bit chilly, though.

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816. pottery 04:26 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Evening, Kris.
( actually, its morning here )
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817. Drakoen 04:27 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
816. pottery 4:26 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Evening, Kris.
( actually, its morning here )


morning here too lol. 12:27am.
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818. moonlightcowboy 04:27 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    


...things look pretty above "cooled" up to me.

A N D, my ignore and banned list grows! That's a pathetic comment Scott.
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820. moonlightcowboy 04:30 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
And, your posts have just been reported, too, Scott. There's no room for that kind of demeanor here.
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821. Drakoen 04:31 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
I'm glad people are showing their true colors before the season so I can update my ignore list accordingly.
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822. smmcdavid 04:32 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Please don't ignore me Drak. I'll be good... maybe.
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823. pottery 04:32 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Ignore............
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824. StormJunkie 04:33 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Since keeper isn't here...

T- 24hrs 26min

Not that cool Kris. Pretty much 26c. Bring some data and I will listen to your point though.
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825. Orcasystems 04:33 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
815. scottsvb 4:26 AM GMT on May 31, 2008 Hide this comment.
Drakeon is a noob..haha hypecaster all over him
Action: | Ignore User



I thought "stormkat" had been banned or something, apparently he just changed his nick to "scottsvb"

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826. Skyepony (Mod) 04:33 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
There's a ship under the convection blow up in the caribbean. time 0300, Lat 18.80 Lon -86.10, wind direction 100º, wind speed 44.1kts - wave hieght 9.8ft
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827. moonlightcowboy 04:33 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
LOL, Drak. I hear you. Who was "hyping" it? LMAO. We're were just observing their new frequency and good organization climatologically. And, wait, don't the models have something on a wave, too? LOL, "hyping" - the only thing hyping is inflated self-perception! Geeesh!
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828. Drakoen 04:33 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
822. smmcdavid 4:32 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Please don't ignore me Drak. I'll be good... maybe.


lol. You have no reason to be ignored.
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829. StormJunkie 04:34 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
.. maybe.

Me too :~)

Evening smmc
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830. StormJunkie 04:36 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Evening Skye :~)

Thanks for the ship ob!!! Pretty steep winds.

I did not get to see visible today. The center is off shore correct?
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832. smmcdavid 04:36 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Hi SJ, anything exciting going on? Just checking in before I go to bed.
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833. Orcasystems 04:36 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
SJ, is this a new system or has it always been available?
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834. pottery 04:37 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Post 823 did not refer to post 822
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836. TheCaneWhisperer 04:39 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Just want to clear some air WBkris.

732. weatherboykris 3:29 AM GMT on May 31, 2008 Hide this comment.
718. TheCaneWhisperer 3:20 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Really CCH? It hasn't rained here in over a week and isolated showers this afternoon we're moving NW from the coast? Rainy season? are you sure?

LOL...somewhat stupidly, the rainy season is not defined by rainfall patterns, but by dewpoints. Here was the NWS press release:


If you read my previous comments, I stated it was on hold, not that it hadn't started. It's been stated in several NWS reports from all parts of Florida this past week and plastered all over the blog the past couple days. Just want to be kept in context Kris, no harm done.
837. atmoaggie 04:39 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Decent-sized area if precipitable water...



Evening everybody.
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838. GRDRATNAVARRE 04:40 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Glad to see the hyping hasn't toned down any on the blog:) Looks to me like the season is going to be interesting. Can't wait to see the first TS blow through FL, we need 7 or 8 to catch up on the rain here.
839. StormJunkie 04:40 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Not sure Orca, I think it has been around, is there a way to view other areas? Or is that the only area you can view?

It is part of the NRL complex if that helps any. Some really cool views there though!
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841. TheCaneWhisperer 04:41 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
44kts skye?
842. Skyepony (Mod) 04:41 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Yes SJ~ a little east of Belize. MJO is centered on it tonight.
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843. moonlightcowboy 04:41 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Scott, go to bed, bro! Drak is respected and helpful in here. He answers questions and doesn't claim to right all the time like you and some others.

Now, you've been asked nicely to shut-up and get on to some friendier, nicer conversation. Now, I've emailed admin and asked them to ban you for your poor manners here on the blog.
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844. atmoaggie 04:43 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
scott...So?

Ignore him yourself so you do not have to suffer through any more of his wisdow rather than pollute the blog with fart-words. It has been starting to smell in here. Every once in a while I can hear a whining noise while reading some of the posts here, too. Why? For no good reason at all.
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845. Skyepony (Mod) 04:44 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
yes kts... its really beginning to go off now.
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846. Orcasystems 04:44 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
839. StormJunkie 4:40 AM GMT on May 31, 2008 Hide this comment.
Not sure Orca, I think it has been around, is there a way to view other areas? Or is that the only area you can view?

It is part of the NRL complex if that helps any. Some really cool views there though!
Action: | Ignore User


I would love to remember who posted the link a few days ago and give credit to him for it, but I forget the nick. I love the graphics and I have been playing with it a lot. If I figure out how to get it to look at other areas I will tell you.

I think it might fit well on your links page.
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847. SouthDadeFish 04:46 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
How close is 90L to forming a closed low level circulation?
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849. pottery 04:47 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
Flag with the ! button and ignored

Thats what admin says to do..........
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850. Drakoen 04:47 AM GMT am 31. Mai 2008    
847. SouthDadeFish 4:46 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
How close is 90L to forming a closed low level circulation?


Numerous reports show the circulation is already closed.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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