Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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Single layer steering showing a nice ridge to the north
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WONT41 KNHC 302348
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
456 youre only 20!
I shouldn't be surprised I wasn't even alive when Andrew hit
not yet but soon.
=================================================
There are so such thing as an unofficial invest. The NHC declares them. There is just a lag between what they have and updating the satellite imagery.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WONT41 KNHC 302348
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
and 23, you should know better to talk in such absolutes!
will 90L amount to anything? probably not! but my point is nobody knows!
having said all that, appears to me a NW motion, maybe even WNW.......... LAND HO!
408. all4hurricanes 7:25 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
I wouldn't be surprised if alma became Arthur in the Gulf of Mexico which is where all the computer models are forecasting it to go. It could be like Bret of 2005. Honestly the first invest, depression, and T.S. are exciting but we don,t see any super strong first storms like Allen, or Anita
I just looked at nearly every model and none put this in the GOM. Most have it heading toward the NNW then NW Then W toward the Pacific....has it changed in the last Hour...LMAO.
I posted this about 1/2 hour ago.....i think NHC just comfirmed.
I think the NHC made it an invest just to see where it would go and if it makes it into the BoC, it may have a shot there. Thats probably their reasoning for it.
NHC does not issue invest.
lmao
I think the NHC made it an invest just to see where it would go and if it makes it into the BoC, it may have a shot there. Thats probably their reasoning for it.
NHC does not issue invest.
--
NHC DO declare invests.
i still have much to learn on here about the
weather forecast. again, thanks for taking the
time to respond to me....
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN VERMILION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 745 PM CDT.
* AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CATLIN...
GEORGETOWN...
WESTVILLE...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THIS IS A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION THAN THE ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE
BROADLANDS TOWARD ALLERTON AREAS.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM...AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THAT
ROTATION REACHING THE GROUND. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE
GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER
UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
LAT...LON 4011 8755 3996 8754 3994 8780 4004 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 264DEG 30KT 3997 8773
$$
CHURCHILL
Section 2.3. DOD Responsibilities
Initiate, monitor, and update satellite invest areas on the tropical cyclone satellite
websites provided by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
(FNMOC) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey, California.
TPC/NHC and CPHC will coordinate with JTWC on the initiation of desired invest
areas and will provide JTWC numbers for invest areas as required.
National Hurricane Operations Plan
enough is enough
extreme i dont even have a comment on what you just said...you just need help....stormkat
Talking about needing help, you need help fixing your attitude problems. Nobody can stand you and your attitude towards others and towards tropical weather.
everyone do the same.
Stormkat=ignore
enough is enough
Action: | Ignore User
Stormcat gets my PA award :)
Viewing: 451 - 501
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