U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again
Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.
Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"
"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.
A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."
It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 — Blog Index
Good Morning, all.
I pointed this out yesterday that this area near S FL is interesting and infact it appears to be getting better organized this morning with a weak low forming near Key West.
Same as it ever was....
How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.
-He was thinking about wrestling...that's why he thinks he's off topic....LOL.
Shot came out nice Nea! Thanks for sharing.
Trying to get beyond the standard scientific disclaimer that no single weather event can be pinned on global warming, government scientists on Tuesday unveiled a new framework: what are the odds of a specific event being impacted by warming?
From msnbc:
They tested it on several extreme events in 2011 -- a strong La Nina year -- and, in the case of the record Texas drought, concluded that such severe dry spells are 20 more times likely during a La Nina year today than a La Nina in the 1960s, before greenhouse gas emissions jumped.
"Conditions leading to droughts such as the one that occurred in Texas in 2011 are, at least in the case of temperature, distinctly more probable than they were 40-50 years ago," researchers concluded in a new study.
"It's quite striking,"Peter Stott told reporters Tuesday at a briefing organized by his employer, Britain's weather service, and the U.S. National Climatic Data Center.
"We can now quantify the changed odds" due to climate change and thus start to assess risk levels, added Stott, who edited the study along with peers from the U.S. data center.
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/10/1266 5235-2011-texas-drought-was-20-times-more-likely-d ue-to-warming-study-says?lite
Enjoy!
Gotta run! lol
Second, Mr. Willis "I Don't Allow Myself To Be Bothered By Facts" Eschenbach's attempt to shoehorn the remarkable heat into a Poisson distribution completely ignored the fact that the top three hottest 12-month periods in U.S. history have ended in the past three months, while four of the top six have ended in the past four months, and every one of the top 12 warmest annual periods in U.S. history have ended since 2000.
That's "normal"?
It's always fun watching denialists twist themselves into pretzels in their endlessly feeble and always futile attempts to "prove" that the planet isn't warming. If we were grading based on perseverance, they'd all get high marks. Unfortunately, however, there's much more at play...
At the conclusion of "Debby", I predicted dead until the 3rd week of August.
Link
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
629 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A BROAD TUTT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...IT SUSTAINS MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN WHILE SUSTAINING A CAP INVERSION AROUND 600/700 HPA. THIS TROUGH IS TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY ON THURSDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS IT ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE CAP INVERSION IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ERODE...AND MOISTURE IS TO START POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH FORECASTED PWAT TO PEAK AT 40-45MM.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...TRANSITIONING TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BUT...THEY SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE ON FRIDAY WHEN IN COMBINATION WITH INDUCED PERTURBATION IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STRONG MESO-SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON 24HRS AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY. THE NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAXIMA OF NEARLY 50MM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO. strong>HISTORICALLY...THE TUTT/TUTT LOWS TEND TO BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
Also looks like PR area will get some more rain on Friday.
That area by South Florida is baroclinic in nature and the the convection is being enhanced by the TUTT low cell just off the coast near the Bahamas. You can see it on link below at the 250mb level.
Link
Winds have switched to the NE in Orlando.
There is no vorticity at the lower levels either. No invest here.
Link
East Coast Visible Hurricane Loop
Yeah weird. I noticed this morning coming into work and then I looked at the weather obs around C FL and many others are showing a NE wind as well. Which is interesting because on radar it does appear that a low is forming south of Key Largo.
Orlando International Airport
NE 3
Orlando / Sanford Airport
NE 3
Leesburg International Airport
NE 5
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport
NE 5
Link
It's very weak but as you can see something is trying to get going here.
Be careful that your dogma doesn't get ran over by your karma...
Link
Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 12:00:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 13.0 kt gusting to 14.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.03 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.9 F
View Details - View History
I join just about everyone in the lower and middle South when I welcome the rain!
Thankfully for us in the TN Valley (at least the eastern half) we're getting more rain than predicted.
Heavy "Gulf-like" moisture in the air. Not too many severe storms. Perfect. I hope it gets stuck here!
Humidity90%
Wind SpeedS 17 G 26 mph
I am so thankful for the rain if it comes. It's been so hot and sunny that my AC unit on my second floor runs from around 1pm to about 7 nonstop. At least if if rains, my unit will get a break....and so will I on my electric bill.
It's all Mid and ULL
Viewing: 1801 - 1851
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 — Blog Index