U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again
Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.
Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"
"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.
A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."
It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I can't wait to read the rain gauges-- we just got what I swear was 3" in 30mins right on top of Lake Travis. That hasn't happened in.. almost two years. It's weird. Feels like when you have a water interruption that lasts and lasts and then suddenly cuts back on and every faucet in your house starts blasting!
LOL
This was headed north to Speech class this afternoon, this thunderstorm had a severe thunderstorm warning at the time. In the first photo there is a strong updraft beneath the thick wall cloud/outflow boundary, it had some weak rotation and was hanging very low, although it looked pretty creepy it never gained any organization, thankfully that atmosphere isn't too favorable for tornadoes, however these nasty sea breeze collisions can sometimes spin up weak tornadoes from low level shearing.
The second photo was a wall cloud formation extending out from the cell before I drove beneath it.
Sure sounds scary cool.
Its complicated.
There is a little known ref to Conservatism,but the spark was from one of my fave forms of flowers.
Its called a Spath. One of the most well known Spath forms is the spathiphyllum.
Peace lily.
Thank you for asking :O)
It might be Spathe.
I dont feel like looking it up.
G'night, all.
Enjoy the rest of the evening.
Extreme Emilia
Its what was norm here. I had a blinking smile from ear to ear :O)
11/0000 UTC 14.2N 115.1W T4.5/5.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
Future Fabio
Anyone in here from Naples FL right now? When I lived there they used to fly the DC-3'S over the city with a diesel/whatever insecticide they used to kill em. Kinda like Robert Duval smelling the napalm in Apocalypse Now and saying " It smells like victory".
Any similarities
TS Daniel
She still has some very nice towers
I was looking at them earlier. Lit up well with the FM lights.
I tink so
A disturbance moving through the Northwestern U.S. has the potential to kick off isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies. These thunderstorms will likely produce little precipitation. Should a lightning strike spark a fire amid the dry and gusty conditions of the northern Rockies, fire could spread quickly. Link
Looking at the loops 98E has gotten a lot more organized recently and should be bumped up to 90% or more next TWO.
Daniel is more bigger...lol
2015 UNK 3 WNW BRANDON HILLSBOROUGH FL 2794 8234 POWER POLES SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FALKENBURG ROAD AND HIGHW
VS.
or I am a homer. More likely...
Link
I was just thrown off by the low level clouds going in the opposite direction as the storms earlier.
Could get interesting tonight... lol
They still fly planes over Bonita Springs, not sure if they're DC 3's or not. They kinda remind me a little of the hurricane hunter planes, and they fly LOW.
I hear ya.
The more I stare at the possible spin the more I see spin.
So I stopped looking.
Now I dont see them.
I just keep telling myself that it is headed West.
Not towards me.
The NHC can worry about it later.
The Nile river is a warm comfy swimming hole.
Ouch!
I hope no one was hurt!
Or as I say ineresting
Meanwhile:
Russia Sends Warships to Mediterranean
Link
What you are most likely seeing is low level flow from the north due to a large are of heavy thunderstorms from earlier, you can get consistent thunderstorm outflow persisting long after they over sometimes. I've seen that happen many times before.
Hey Joe. What's up?
they sure did!
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
...DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 138.3W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
More like got its butt wiped, lol.
WTPZ44 KNHC 110231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER
SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Hi Nigel
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 115.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
The first time I saw it I honestly thought it was gonna crash, cause there's not an airport anywhere in town there.
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
Viewing: 1601 - 1651
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