Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Category 1 Hurricane Carlotta hits Mexico
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:30 PM GMT am 16. Juni 2012 +28
Hurricane Carlotta made landfall near Escondido, Mexico Friday night at 8 pm PDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Carlotta moved inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico this morning, and has weakened to a tropical depression. Since Carlotta was a relatively small hurricane, strong winds affected only a small portion of the coast, and wind damage was probably fairly limited. However, the hurricane has dumped heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and two deaths from a landslide triggered by heavy rains occurred this morning in the Oaxaca state community of Pluma Hidalgo. Carlotta will continue to dump heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and the 4 - 8 inches of total rainfall that will occur in some areas will be capable of causing more life-threatening flash floods and landslides through the weekend.


Figure 1. Radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar shortly before the storm made landfall.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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351. nigel20 12:31 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.

FWIW, I love high humidity. In fact, that's one of the reasons I live in Southwest Florida, and why I enjoy vacationing in tropical locations (Panama, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc.). Dry weather depresses me. To each his own, I guess... ;-)

Same here...
Member Since: Novämber 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556
352. Neapolitan 12:32 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Abnormal heat returns to much of the nation by the end of the coming week and into the next, with the focal point being the mountain and desert West--definitely not what firefighters want to see. Even interior Alaska gets in on the action. Only the Northeast and the extreme West coast will be spared:

hot

hot

Speaking of fires, the High Park fire in Colorado is still burning wildly. It's the third largest wildfire in that state's history, having already scorched about 85 square miles (along with more than 100 buildings). The SPC is calling for critical fire conditions in the area at least through Tuesday (and they will likely lengthen that given the revised temperature forecast).

The Los Angeles Times quotes some officials as stating the dry weather and beetle-ravaged trees may provide conditons capable of keeping the blaze alive "all summer". Among the many concerns, the fire and smoke are seriously hurting Colorado's tourism right at the start of summer hiking and sightseeing season.

And since I'm yapping away here: Arctic sea ice area has plummeted by 1.458 million square kilometers over the last eight days. That's an area larger than Texas, California, and New Mexico combined. The decrease is the single biggest eight-day drop on record.
Member Since: Novämber 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11175
353. RitaEvac 12:32 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.


It may mean you were outta shape last week, it got you in shape, and this week you did better?....
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912
354. PlazaRed 12:35 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Fukushima/Tepco best have a good plan for the # 4 Bldg there.


Some say that the super typhoon might get knocked about a bit on its way to Japan!
Might just turn into a passing kiss, rather than a hammer blow.
I am concerned about the recent lack of "after shocks," 15 months after the big quake and it might indicate a building stress area, that will soon break. If it waits much longer it may increase in size and be yet another nail in the coffin over there!
Down to about 5 aftershocks in the last week.
Could be bad timing if a big aftershock occurs when the "remains" of the super typhoon is just off shore. Sort of double Whammy.
Member Since: Januar 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442
355. Chicklit 12:35 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Hi Guys,
Member Since: Juli 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255
356. Neapolitan 12:35 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.
That's very possible; working in a high humidity environment, your body can't regulate its temperature effectively through normal perspiring, so it ramps up the sweating even more. If you're not drinking enough water--or, you know, beer--you can still become dehydrated.
Member Since: Novämber 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11175
357. washingtonian115 12:36 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting RitaEvac:


It may mean you were outta shape last week, it got you in shape, and this week you did better?....
No I'm not outta shape.It's just that when your in the hot sun digging up earth and putting plants in and doing it over and over again with humidity and heat..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
358. PlazaRed 12:39 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Nea, Have you got the sea ice graph handy?
I was thinking it might now be at the lowest lever ever recorded for the date/time of year?
I would think we are well on course for the lowest levels ever by mid September.
Member Since: Januar 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442
359. Tropicsweatherpr 12:39 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
95E is back!

EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8271
360. aspectre 12:41 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
La Mort de Carlotta
EP, 03, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1001W, 20, 1006, LO
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
361. MAweatherboy1 12:42 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
Abnormal heat returns to much of the nation by the end of the coming week and into the next, with the focal point being the mountain and desert West--definitely not what firefighters want to see. Even interior Alaska gets in on the action. Only the Northeast and the extreme West coast will be spared:

hot

hot

Speaking of fires, the High Park fire in Colorado is still burning wildly. It's the third largest wildfire in that state's history, having already scorched about 85 square miles (along with more than 100 buildings). The SPC is calling for critical fire conditions in the area at least through Tuesday (and they will likely lengthen that given the revised temperature forecast).

The Los Angeles Times quotes some officials as stating the dry weather and beetle-ravaged trees may provide conditons capable of keeping the blaze alive "all summer". Among the many concerns, the fire and smoke are seriously hurting Colorado's tourism right at the start of summer hiking and sightseeing season.

And since I'm yapping away here: Arctic sea ice area has plummeted by 1.458 million square kilometers over the last eight days. That's an area larger than Texas, California, and New Mexico combined. The decrease is the single biggest eight-day drop on record.

And even worse than those temperature maps...

Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379
362. HurricaneHunterJoe 12:44 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Link
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Link??
Member Since: Septämber 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2697
363. Chicklit 12:47 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
TY 1204 (GUCHOL)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 16 June 2012

Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16%uFFFD40'(16.7%uFFFD)
E128%uFFFD00'(128.0%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)

Central pressure 935hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt) 115 mph

Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Gusts to 161 mph
1 knot (kt) = 1.15077945 miles per hour (mph)

Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)


Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19%uFFFD20'(19.3%uFFFD)
E127%uFFFD05'(127.1%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt) 161 mph,
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt) 189 mph!
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)


Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21%uFFFD50'(21.8%uFFFD)
E127%uFFFD00'(127.0%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt) Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27%uFFFD05'(27.1%uFFFD)
E129%uFFFD35'(129.6%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32%uFFFD35'(32.6%uFFFD)
E135%uFFFD00'(135.0%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)

Link Japan Meteorological Agency

Thank goodness it will weaken as it hits Japan's eastern coast.
Member Since: Juli 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255
364. RTSplayer 12:50 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
And since I'm yapping away here: Arctic sea ice area has plummeted by 1.458 million square kilometers over the last eight days. That's an area larger than Texas, California, and New Mexico combined. The decrease is the single biggest eight-day drop on record.


Yes, I saw that.

Member Since: Januar 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
365. Pirate999 12:50 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Kemah, TX. Boardwalk, Galveston Bay



From San Luis Hotel, Galveston, TX



Moody Gardens, Galveston, TX,



Great pics. I sail by the boardwalk all the time...I remember it when it was a sleepy little fishing/shrimping town.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
366. tropicfreak 12:53 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
La Mort de Carlotta
EP, 03, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1001W, 20, 1006, LO


Adios Carlotta.
Member Since: Septämber 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
367. trunkmonkey 12:57 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's very possible; working in a high humidity environment, your body can't regulate its temperature effectively through normal perspiring, so it ramps up the sweating even more. If you're not drinking enough water--or, you know, beer--you can still become dehydrated.


Hey I'm comin down to Naples next week, bringing my scooter, you got any of that good pie for sale?

I wanna see just how good it is!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
368. STXHurricanes2012 12:58 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
English please! :P
Member Since: Juni 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
369. Articuno 12:59 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Kemah, TX. Boardwalk, Galveston Bay



From San Luis Hotel, Galveston, TX



Moody Gardens, Galveston, TX,


Looks peaceful
Member Since: Oktober 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
370. Hurricanes101 01:00 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's very possible; working in a high humidity environment, your body can't regulate its temperature effectively through normal perspiring, so it ramps up the sweating even more. If you're not drinking enough water--or, you know, beer--you can still become dehydrated.


I would think in the end, beer would not help hydrate you
Member Since: März 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902
372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:04 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting jackandcoke:
What could we do to make the planet more safer for survival in a hurricane.
well why not just get outta the way step aside let it have its day
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
373. washingtonian115 01:05 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Articuno:

Looks peaceful
For now...J/K any who this blog will probably not be this dead come next week.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
374. charlottefl 01:05 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
It is much more difficult for your body to cool down in high humidity, I work in it every day, and sometimes it even gets to me, and I'm used to it. So the average person has to stay hydrated/stop and cool off when they get too hot.
Member Since: Dezämber 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672
375. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:06 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would think in the end, beer would not help hydrate you
i drink gatorade or powerade great stuff plus gives lots of stuff back
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:07 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
i have no issues except sweating
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
377. belizeit 01:11 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
English please! :P
Por Que a quistamos mocho personas de ablar espanol.
Member Since: Januar 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 792
378. BahaHurican 01:12 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Back at last... didn't think I'd be gone so long...

Taz, r u keeping the Invests Lists again this year? We're only on B and C and I've already forgotten which invest # we r on...
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
379. Tazmanian 01:13 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Back at last... didn't think I'd be gone so long...

Taz, r u keeping the Invests Lists again this year? We're only on B and C and I've already forgotten which invest # we r on...



yes i am
Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
380. washingtonian115 01:13 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Back at last... didn't think I'd be gone so long...

Taz, r u keeping the Invests Lists again this year? We're only on B and C and I've already forgotten which invest # we r on...
This up coming one will be 95L.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
381. JrWeathermanFL 01:14 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Back at last... didn't think I'd be gone so long...

Taz, r u keeping the Invests Lists again this year? We're only on B and C and I've already forgotten which invest # we r on...

I'm keeping a list as well.
Member Since: Juli 19, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 1051
382. aspectre 01:16 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
359 Tropicsweatherpr: 95E is back! EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

853kilometres(530miles)south of BajaCaliforniaSur :: 4670kilometres(2900miles)east of Hawaii
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
383. jamesrainier 01:16 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
STARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMSFIELD...OR 19 MILES EAST OF
GALESBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURA...WEST JERSEY...TOULON...WYOMING...CASTLETON...BRADFORD.. .
MONICA AND DUNCAN.
Member Since: Juni 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
384. jamesrainier 01:17 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
706 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 745 PM MDT

* AT 704 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF PRITCHETT...OR 25 MILES WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRITCHETT.
Member Since: Juni 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
385. jamesrainier 01:18 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Member Since: Juni 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
386. jamesrainier 01:22 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
[Tornado Vortex Signature] W5 Peoria IL 63 dBZ 36,000 ft. 39 kg/m² 30% Chance 90% Chance 1.00 in. 27 knots S (179)
Member Since: Juni 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
387. HurricaneHunterJoe 01:22 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, I saw that.



Don't confuse people with facts,you will be accused of treason or worse!!
Member Since: Septämber 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2697
388. Tazmanian 01:23 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
mode runs dont do marh of any thing with 95E

Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:24 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
latest N.H.ENHANCED W.V. ANIM.

9 MINS OLD

Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
390. KoritheMan 01:25 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Don't confuse people with facts,you will be accused of treason or worse!!


More likely, in the case of AGW, you will be labeled a conspiracy theorist. Baseless accusations are easy to make when one lacks any actual evidence for their side. It's so cute, though.
Member Since: März 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
391. HurricaneHunterJoe 01:25 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Hey I'm comin down to Naples next week, bringing my scooter, you got any of that good pie for sale?

I wanna see just how good it is!


How is Naples these days? I lived there from 85-91 and it was awesome. Back in the day Naples residents got free parking permits for those little cul-de-sacs by the beach,I think the population was like 20,000.
Member Since: Septämber 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2697
392. WxGeekVA 01:26 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Meanwhile, pollution in China...

Member Since: Septämber 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
393. jamesrainier 01:28 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Member Since: Juni 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
394. nigel20 01:30 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


More likely, in the case of AGW, you will be labeled a conspiracy theorist. Baseless accusations are easy to make when one lacks any actual evidence for their side. It's so cute, though.

Hey Kori...what's up?
Member Since: Novämber 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556
395. jamesrainier 01:31 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Member Since: Juni 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
396. KoritheMan 01:34 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Kori...what's up?


Just got in from work an hour ago. You?
Member Since: März 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
397. BahaHurican 01:35 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
This up coming one will be 95L.
Thanks, DC115... It's just beginning to hit me that if this thing does blow up as is being hinted, my weekend plans for next week may have to be cancelled.
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
398. cyclonekid 01:35 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like concentric eyewalls on Guchol

I think that usually means that it is about to undergo an EWRC. Which may be the reason the JTWC has Guchol weakening before restrengthening.
Member Since: Juli 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629
399. BahaHurican 01:38 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes i am
Thanks, taz.

Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
400. aspectre 01:38 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
washingtonian115: Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.
356 Neapolitan: That's very possible; working in a high humidity environment, your body can't regulate its temperature effectively through normal perspiring, so it ramps up the sweating even more. If you're not drinking enough water--or, you know, beer--you can still become dehydrated.

Drag an extension cord with a big fan out to your garden.
Strenuous work or sport can be hazardous on beer.
One can end up sweating/etc out water faster than one processes the alchol. And a high blood-alcohol level severely decreases the body's ability to regulate its temperature.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
401. nigel20 01:39 AM GMT am 17. Juni 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just got in from work an hour ago. You?

I'm good
Member Since: Novämber 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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