Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."
Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.
Jeff Masters
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If so, this system wont be the beginning.
Helicities are only around 200-300 m2/s2 (could change), and the storm motion is North to south which is not the best direction for strong tornadoes
Great post! You ideally want storm motion to the NE or E for strong tornadoes.
Source...
Thanks Nea! I guess they better hope the Death Ridge doesn't set up this year but I think the onset of El-Nino (possibly coming) might keep them wet this year.
Recent rains not enough to abate drought
Sherry Koonce The Port Arthur News
PORT ARTHUR —
Though cloudy gray skies have prevailed much of the winter — even soaking Mardi Gras revelers this weekend and measuring above the norm — the amount of precipitation in Jefferson County is not enough to abate last year’s record-setting drought.
“We are not out of the drought at all. Obviously, the recent rain is an improvement, but we are trying to recover from essentially the most intense drought on record,” Robert Deal, meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Lake Charles office said Monday.
Since Jan. 1, 14.15 inches of rainfall has been recorded at the Jack Brooks Regional Airport. So far this month, another 7.88 inches of precipitation has fallen locally. The combined totals put the area 6.38 inches above normal amounts of 7.77 inches.
While helpful, the excess is not enough to counteract a drought that started two years ago and ended 29.12 inches below normal rainfall amounts at the close of 2011.
“Recent rainfall is slowly trying to right the ship. We are improving, but certainly not out of the drought yet,” Deal said.
The Port Arthur area right now is still listed in severe drought, he said.
If forecasts for the next few months hold true, positive effects of any recent rainfall will be next to nil.
“Just a couple of months and we will be right back to where we were,” Deal said.
According to NWS data, the next three months are expected to be drier than normal, Deal said.
I don't ever recall a monster tornado from a north to south storm.
Or maybe we'll get some of these!:
But probably not =)
Yes sorry, you are correct.... But look at the figures.
Earth’s glaciers and ice caps outside of the regions of Greenland and Antarctica are shedding roughly 150 billion tons of ice each year.
world’s glaciers and ice caps had lost about 148 billion tons, or about 39 cubic miles of ice annually from 2003 to 2010.
ice loss from both Greenland and Antarctica, including their peripheral ice caps and glaciers, was roughly 385 billion tons of ice annually.
According to the GRACE data, total sea level rise from all land-based ice on Earth including Greenland and Antarctica was roughly 1.5 millimeters per year annually or about 12 millimeters, or one-half inch, from 2003 to 2010, said Wahr. The sea rise amount does include the expansion of water due to warming, which is the second key sea-rise component and is roughly equal to melt totals, he said.
Wikipedia link:
1997 Central Texas Tornado Outbreak
Youtube Video:
Jarell, Texas EF-5 Wedge Tornado
Wikipedia notes stated many folks ran to underpasses!
I have no idea, but running under underpasses use to be quite common until weather authorities actively dissuaded people from doing that.
And very rightly so. very dangerous
Wow guys, great video of Jarrell, that storm came from Northeast to Southwest, and spawned the big one!
I'll have my guard up when storms come from that direction.
Did anyone see video of a cutaway of the radar?
That would have been interesting!
That death ridge might be setting up over Florida, getting what we got all last year, and pumping gulf moisture into TX this year and tropical systems our way as well.
Yes, that would represent about half a foot of sea level rise over the next 88 years if it happened linearly.
However, Greenland's 5 year linear average rate of melting has been doubling every 5 years for at least the past 10 years or so.
Greenland is like a stick of butter in a hot pan. It's already doomed, it just hasn't quite caught up with it's environment yet. Moreover, the pan is still on the burner and the heat has just been turned up to high.
Over the next few years, as sea ice melts more and more, and earlier in the year, I would expect the albedo feedback to begin really tearing into the edges of the Greenland ice caps.
it means the 500mb jet is moving at a speed to create wind shear at the upper levels of 120 knots
That's usually when we get them. And why we don't get the ones that hit Florida. But I hope a ridge like that doesn't sit on anyone this year.
It typically is dry here this time of year but this is expecailly dry. However come May you can always bank on those seabreeze storms to start firing on a daily basis. Unlike Texas we are surrounded by water which helps in creating our daily rains from late May thru mid October. Even in dry years we still get a lot of rain for instance Vero Beach last year had only 5" of rain the first 5 months of the year but by years end ended up with 64" for the year. Texas always has the death ridge come July.
I just hope Antarctica doesn't melt or even I'll be looking for higher ground
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX INTO A
PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION
OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SWLY LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER
EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NRN MEXICO
AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE NAM STILL BEING THE SLOWEST
MODEL. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REACH SRN TX LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
OH VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES.
...SERN STATES...
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S
OVER SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO NEAR 50 OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD AND OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING IN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS
LLJ INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD.
...OH VALLEY...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG LIKELY. FORCING WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROMOTE A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED...BUT
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Alex Sosnowski
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Feb 21, 2012; 9:00 AM ET
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Numerous small quakes have shaken the region since 1990. Image appears courtesy of the USGS.
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a 4.0 magnitude earthquake shook areas in Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee and Kentucky before dawn Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012.
The quake, which struck just before 4:00 a.m. CST, was felt as far away as St. Louis.
The quake center was 16 miles southwest of Cairo, Ill., and 122 miles north-northeast of Memphis, Tenn.
The soil composition in the region likely magnified the effect of the quake somewhat, causing it to be felt over a broad area, and added to the shaking. However, no major damage has been reported, according to the Associated Press and other sources.
Quakes of this magnitude can cause cracks in walls and foundations and knock items off shelves and pictures off walls.
Yeah. We get most of our rains from tropical systems. Probably why we in east Texas have been in drought since Ike basically. Still holding our breath that these rains will be enough. We could all live without a death ridge.
The dissuasion largely a result of the May 3-4, 1999 severe events.
February 19-25, 2012 is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Oklahoma (and Texas).
warm water also expands, so it will be more water and expanding water. also the atmosphere can only hold so much moisture.
Yes good Question.
Also, 1/4 of 2010 was La Nina, 2011 was La Nina and looks like 1/3 of 2012. 2010 and 2011 had few CONUS land-falling hurricane. What will 2012 be like?
Beat me to it. That one left slabs, and slabs alone. Also was a very slow moving storm.
Evaporation will increase somewhat, but it takes a huge amount of energy to evaporate water. About 7 times as much as melting Ice.
I think Dr. Masters has stated that convection goes up by about 4.5% per degree of temperature rise, but that's not an exact quote.
I've tried working on that and it's hard to say, but I think it's close to two square kilometers of additional heavy convection are required to offset every 1 kilometer of ice in terms of Albedo.
Unfortunately, water vapor and clouds trap heat on the night time side of the Earth, so they might actually be a net zero in terms of Albedo and forcing.
If the GFS is right then this event will be very isolated.
See Wikipedia for the Jarrell, Texas tornado.
"In the early morning hours of May 27, a large Mesoscale Convective Complex developed over Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. A "gravity wave" or outflow boundary was generated by this system and stalled out over Central Texas. This was oriented from the northeast to the southwest, causing the movement of the supercells later on to be to the southwest, which is extremely unusual. Also unusual on this day was the low shear and extreme instability."
and
"Numerous vehicles sought shelter underneath various overpasses as the tornado formed and strengthened, turning Interstate 35 into a virtual parking lot. Texas Highway Patrol worsened the traffic jam by stopping both northbound and southbound traffic in anticipation of the tornado moving southeastward and crossing the highway. Had the tornado abruptly changed direction, the death toll could have been much higher as nearly five miles of traffic and hundreds of people were trapped on the highway with no route of escape. However, the tornado moved parallel to Interstate 35 for nearly its entire lifespan in a south-southwestward direction, a very rare occurrence."
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