Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Record flooding in North Dakota forces evacuation of 11,000
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:10 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011 +7
A 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 year flood is in progress in North Dakota along the Souris River, where flood heights never seen in recorded history are putting unprecedented pressure on the river's levees. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot, North Dakota, the state's 4th largest city, is full to overflowing. Record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from overtopping. A mandatory evacuation of 11,000 residents from Minot is underway, and must be completed before Thursday morning, when water levels on the Souris River are expected to rise several feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Massive rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already almost a foot above the previous all-time highest mark, and all that water will arrive in Minot beginning on Thursday, likely overwhelming the city's levees and flooding large portions of the city for two or more weeks.


Figure 1. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 4th highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' Thursday night. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.


Figure 2. The Souris River (in pink) is part of the Red River drainage basin. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Heavy rains this week over the neighboring Missouri River watershed forced the Army Corps of Engineers today to increase the flow rate at the key Gavins Point Dam to a record 160,000 cubic feet per second. The dam was already releasing water at more than double the previous record flow rate, and the increased flow is expected to raise flood heights by 0.3 - 0.7 feet along the Missouri River from Omaha to Kansas City. There have already been two levee failures and two places where levees have been overtopped along the Missouri River this month, resulting in large-scale flooding of low-lying farmlands. "This continues to be a very dynamic situation and dangerous at the same time," said Brig. Gen. John McMahon, commander of the Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula about seven days from now. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Beatriz is gone, after being torn apart by Mexico's high mountains during landfall. Beatriz is responsible for at least three deaths in Mexico.

Jeff Masters
Touchdown near York, Nebraska (StormTrain)
Tornado touching down less than a 1/2 mile from our location west of York, NE. The storm did miss the farm in this photo, but a few farms were hit and a train was derailed as it moved to the northeast.
Touchdown near York, Nebraska
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1 (Greyelf)
Taken 6/20/11 at Haworth Park, which is right along the Missouri River. Note the gazebo on the left 1/3 of the shot that I've made reference to in prior shots (5/28/11 when flooding first started and later shot on 6/13/11). The gazebo now has water in it almost up to it's roof. Of note, when I drove by again this morning on 6/21/11, the water had raised again after last night's rain. I'm never getting back into that gazebo at this rate.
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1
Categories: Flood
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351. PakaSurvivor 05:32 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Not unless you actually remember seeing them in the movies and not TV reruns. :)


I guess we shoudln't mention our parents taking us to a live performance also! ;)
Member Since: Septämber 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
352. PcolaDan 05:33 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
I know you will have a good time with this one, but I'm off for some racquet ball and some swimming. Be back later. Hope the tropics have something to watch when I get back. Ran two miles the other morning. (and Mrs. Grothar wasn't even chasing me) Now you Republicans and Democrats play nice with each other.


Does make it easier to chase the ball down when it is slowed down by water. :|
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
353. cchsweatherman 05:33 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting alfabob:
Wonder if that squall line will help; some warm SST once it establishes itself over the water.


Just looked at some surface observations, satellite loops, and radar and there does appear to be a weak surface low overland moving northbound towards the thunderstorms over Southern Texas and Northern Mexico. This is clearly evident as you can see the convection bending in towards the low and radar also shows thunderstorms curving towards the defined spin on radar.

Not looking for any development from this considering its overland, but an interesting feature to note that could add more lift to the atmosphere over Southern Texas and Northern Mexico through the day.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926
354. JRRP 05:35 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    




Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4304
355. Patrap 05:36 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
...cue the Jaws music


Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
356. ShenValleyFlyFish 05:37 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting pottery:

Well, yes. There is that....
But we can eat them too.
Think of them as turkey's with 12 thighs.



It is possible to end up with unintended consequences.
Member Since: Septämber 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
357. SubtropicalHi 05:38 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
San Antonio (KSAT): 1.54 inches of pennies from heaven
Member Since: Juni 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 354
361. pottery 05:41 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Patrap:


auburn was here Sat-Sun and we had a fine time...

Even visited the Audubon NWS station near the river.


Good One.
But that tree next to the Station.
Got to cut that down you know.
And all that grass in front....
It can cause False Results on the Guages.
Tree could even cast a shadow which might result in Global Cooling.
Would be more in keeping with the general trend to pave with asphalt for 1000 yards, all around.

hehehhh
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
362. JRRP 05:42 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting DestinJeff:
354 may have just de-frib'd the blog.

i do not understand you
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4304
363. aburttschell 05:43 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Could the recent N. Dakota flooding be the start of the re-emergence of lake agassiz?
Member Since: Dezämber 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
364. nchurricane 05:44 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
havent been on in a while but i know you guys on here are good with links...there is a 10,000+ acre wildfire near my house here on the coast of North Carolina and i wanted to get some good satellite imagery of the smoke, does anyone know a good website???
Member Since: Mai 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
365. MrMixon 05:44 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    

Quoting Patrap:
...cue the Jaws music



Looks like an ol' fashioned showdown at the border...
Member Since: März 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 954
366. hydrus 05:44 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting DestinJeff:
354 may have just de-frib'd the blog.
Lmao...I comin Elizabeth.!...Ima Comin.!...( excerpt from Sanford and Son.)..
Member Since: Septämber 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
367. ShenValleyFlyFish 05:45 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:



It is possible to end up with unintended consequences.


But sometimes it turns out all right:
Watermelon auctioned for $6,100 in Japan
Member Since: Septämber 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
369. Floodman 05:47 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting pottery:

It was a mistake trying to keep all that nice stuff locked up anyway.
If you love something, set it free....

What's the problem with 800 lb cucumbers, anyway?


The problem is that they're ambulatory 800 lb cucumbers
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
371. pottery 05:51 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Floodman:


The problem is that they're ambulatory 800 lb cucumbers

Easy to harvest, though...

"here, cucumber, come on now, follow me to the packing department.."
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
372. biff4ugo 05:51 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Thanks for the Blog.

I didn't realize so much of North Dakota drained to the North.

...

Too much water late in the season make melons explode here too, even without the hormones.

Too much water is not our issue now.
What does fire do to melons?
Member Since: Dezämber 28, 2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1174
373. emcf30 05:51 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting nchurricane:
havent been on in a while but i know you guys on here are good with links...there is a 10,000+ acre wildfire near my house here on the coast of North Carolina and i wanted to get some good satellite imagery of the smoke, does anyone know a good website???




Active fire imagery
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
374. Patrap 05:51 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting pottery:

Good One.
But that tree next to the Station.
Got to cut that down you know.
And all that grass in front....
It can cause False Results on the Guages.
Tree could even cast a shadow which might result in Global Cooling.
Would be more in keeping with the general trend to pave with asphalt for 1000 yards, all around.

hehehhh


Dere is also one "Big, Cold, High Mississippi River about 300 feet away as well.

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
376. emcf30 05:53 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    


Alot of smoke in North Florida today
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
377. BobinTampa 05:53 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting DestinJeff:


shocked some life back into it ("CLEAR!") ... due to the image you posted showing a TC strike on FL.


OMG! An FL TC??
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508
378. pottery 05:54 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


But sometimes it turns out all right:
Watermelon auctioned for $6,100 in Japan

Seriously???
I wouldnt pay that for a watermellon, even if it looked like Raquele Welsh.
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
379. weatherh98 05:54 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
...cue the Jaws music




anything for you patrap, ba da, ba da ba da, ba da ba da ba da, badadada
Member Since: Juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6076
380. galvestonhurricane 05:55 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    


Hallelujah
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381. ShenValleyFlyFish 05:56 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting DestinJeff:


Welr, I rent down to the Glundy County Auction,
and I sawr something I just had to have...
Here's your sign!
Member Since: Septämber 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
382. PcolaDan 05:57 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting nchurricane:
havent been on in a while but i know you guys on here are good with links...there is a 10,000 acre wildfire near my house here on the coast of North Carolina and i wanted to get some good satellite imagery of the smoke, does anyone know a good website???

I think MODIS caught it.
(on the left you can change the pixel level)

Terra/MODIS
2011/173
06/22/2011
15:45 UTC

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
383. JRRP 05:58 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting DestinJeff:


shocked some life back into it ("CLEAR!") ... due to the image you posted showing a TC strike on FL.

ohh
i was seeing the central atlantic system
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4304
385. PcolaDan 05:59 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting aburttschell:
Could the recent N. Dakota flooding be the start of the re-emergence of lake agassiz?


Knew what you were referring to, but not the name. I admit it, I had to look it up. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
386. pottery 05:59 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Patrap:


Dere is also one "Big, Cold, High Mississippi River about 300 feet away as well.


Yeah, I see that.
But it's all a conspiracy as you know.
That river was put there AFTER the Weather Station was erected.
Surely...
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
387. JRRP 06:00 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
anyway
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388. hydrus 06:02 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Buffmuffin:


Link
Awesome...
Member Since: Septämber 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
389. PcolaDan 06:03 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting nchurricane:
havent been on in a while but i know you guys on here are good with links...there is a 10,000+ acre wildfire near my house here on the coast of North Carolina and i wanted to get some good satellite imagery of the smoke, does anyone know a good website???


Also maybe here.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
390. MrMixon 06:08 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
#384

Oh geez.... I'm no prude, but I like having a job.  Appropriate use of "NSFW" warnings is always appreciated ya know...



Member Since: März 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 954
391. weaverwxman 06:11 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Here's your sign!

my mind told me i should proceed with caution.
Member Since: Novämber 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 332
392. CybrTeddy 06:13 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
12z NOGAPS shifted south.
Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20202
394. clwstmchasr 06:14 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
It certainly appears that if something were to develop in the area of the Yucatan in 4-5 days, it is going to be a western GOM event. I guess they need the rain more than FL right now.
Member Since: Juli 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2753
395. utilaeastwind 06:14 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
State of Emergency declared

http://www.examiner.com/human-rights-in-national/ project-flood-nuclear-alert-obama-red-cross-declar e-emergencies
Member Since: Oktober 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
396. Txrainstorm 06:15 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Hallelujah


Amen!! Loving this rain....
Member Since: Septämber 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
397. oreodogsghost 06:15 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Hooray for 1.5 inches of rain in west Houston!
Member Since: Februar 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1449
398. MrMixon 06:21 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    

Quoting Buffmuffin:


WordPress.Com hosted image for story on breast cancer isn't "Safe for work?"

Yikes, where do you work?

Sorry to offend.
Oh no, I wasn't offended... sorry if that wasn't clear.  Like I said, I'm no prude.  Had the link been to the full article, instead of just that image, it might've been a little less, um, "in your face".  I work at a professional consulting company and nobody thinks twice about a little idle browsing of news, weather, sports, etc... but my monitor faces in such a way that others might see it and I'd prefer they not get the wrong idea about my downtime activities...
Member Since: März 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 954
399. TampaTom 06:22 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting DestinJeff:
354 may have just de-frib'd the blog.


Indeed - a TS right off the west Florida coast gets my attention...
Member Since: Juni 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1048
400. RitaEvac 06:25 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Got some rain, now lets prime the gulf up for next week and give us a round 2 shot in the arm
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8878

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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