Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Jeff, how much rain did you get? I got a whopping 2.05" at the house. LOT more than I expected, being so close to the NWS near the cone of silence, it's hard to depict how much rain is really fallen.

Although the Fort Calhoun plant is surrounded by an eight foot tall and 16 foot wide protective berm, two feet of water have already made its way to several areas of the Fort Calhoun plant, but authorities say there is no immediate danger at either plant.

Moisture surge into Texas..African wave has a decent twist to it..

strogest tropical wave so far this season to exit the african coast the next 48 hrs. it has a 1004mb low pressure with it

could FL get hit by that
;

Good morning all. After looking at this morning's radar, I was hoping that moisture off of Texas would make its way across the GOM to the Keys. After reading through this page, my hopes have been dashed again. I saw a beautiful thunderhead forming northwest of Key West yesterday evening with some wonderful rain falling. Unfortunately, it was raining on the ocean:( I am delighted that the Florida peninsula is getting rain, since our drinking water comes from there, but my plants are really needing some fresh rainwater. Even the wild animals need it. The garden lizards come running toward me when I water my plants. And I even saw a White Crowned pigeon up close yesterday (they are usually at treetops and very shy) when it was drinking from a roof gutter that has been collecting a/c water. I didn't know they had such beautiful iridescent rings on their necks and a rusty red patch on their nape. I am hope casting for a tropical disturbance to come our way. We need the rain!

And a strong wave behind it..

Quoting hydrus:

Beautiful potential!

Quoting WarEagle8:
Beautiful potential!

Especially if they make it all the way to the Caribbean...

Tropical Storm Falcon leaves Mola Street flooded in Barangay La Paz in Makati City. The storm spawned heavy rains in Metro Manila and other Luzon regions.

MANILA, Philippines—Several roads in Metro Manila were not passable to light vehicles as floods hit various in areas in the metropolis due to heavy rains spawned by Tropical Storm Falcon, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority said Thursday.

The Tumana River reached a critical level as of 7 p.m., MMDA Metrobase information officer Vincent Lizada said.

Roads left not passable to light vehicles were: Aurora Boulevard from Isetan to 15th Avenue (with floodwater 26 inches deep), Malabon particularly MH del Pilar (32 inches) and Dampalit (32 inches), Osmena Highway particularly from Bangkal to Buendia (25 inches), and as Lawton (19 inches).

Along Araneta Avenue, the corner of Maria Clara and NS Amoranto was not passable to all types of vehicles as water reached five to six feet.

He said that Lagusnilad was not passable at all, saying the water was more than five feet deep.

Look at all that lovely moisture in the gulf from Texas to Florida! The west coast of Fl looks to get a very early start to the rains today as the seabreeze fires up and showers parallel the coast moving to the north. I'd have to disagree with the 30% chance of rain for Tampa forecast by the nws.

Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, June 23rd, with Video

Stay thirsty my friends.

Quoting hydrus:
Check out these massive rainfall rates that are forecast by the GFS...Link

oh wow when is it gonna happen?? It rained all around here yesterday. the radar looked like buckshot of little strong cells all over the southeast. we didnt get a drop here in pc area.

earthquake question:

I just started looking at earthquakes on the interactive map since Japan. what the heck, has Japan always had that many strong earthquakes a day?!? All within 3.3 to 6 range every single day, several. just wonder if this started up really bad after the big one or if it has always been like that. Thanks

In these situations NWS is a good source of forecast track.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.

Quoting centex:
In these situations NWS is a good source of forecast track.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.

I agree with their assessment.

Strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean means it will take a while yet for our tropical wave to acquire significant surface convergence. If the monsoon low lifts farther north it may help with that.

Quoting Levi32:


I agree with their assessment.

That's what usually happens in the BOC/western carribean in June, that's what Alex did last year

Quoting twhcracker:
earthquake question:

I just started looking at earthquakes on the interactive map since Japan. what the heck, has Japan always had that many strong earthquakes a day?!? All within 3.3 to 6 range every single day, several. just wonder if this started up really bad after the big one or if it has always been like that. Thanks

Japan has looooong history of earthquakes. Two good sites that show this are here and here.

These both show the major quakes. You can imagine the amount of smaller ones. There is a reason Japan has some of the strictest and best building codes to help save lives during earthquakes.

edit: Almost any time there is a major earthquake there will be many forshocks and aftershocks. And more often than not, for a long time afterwards. Even when there is no major Japan continuously moves around. :)

Quoting weatherh98:


That's what usually happens in the BOC/western carribean in June, that's what Alex did last year

Actually that's not what usually happens in June. Usually they get drawn north by troughs over the eastern US, like the last Arlene we had in 2005.

nice and warm pretty much everywhere

Quoting twhcracker:
earthquake question:

I just started looking at earthquakes on the interactive map since Japan. what the heck, has Japan always had that many strong earthquakes a day?!? All within 3.3 to 6 range every single day, several. just wonder if this started up really bad after the big one or if it has always been like that. Thanks

With any large quake, there will always be after-shocks. Chile is still having after-shocks from the 8.8 they had March 2010. Japan will have many more after-shocks, even for many years to come. But, only part of the thrust fault ruptured from the 9.0, there is still about 500km's of the fault and that further down the coast towards Tokyo.

Summer storm winding up in the baltic sea, about to hit finland with winds of 40mph and 60mph gusts expected over the next few hours

Off to work. Back later.

Quoting PcolaDan:
Red alert as 'cork' plugs volcano

Official site:


Special Report No 50 Volcanic Activity Volcanic Complex Puyehue - Cord Caulle
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
The National Service of Geology and Mining (SERNAGEOMIN) - Volcano Observatory of the Southern Andes (OVDAS) reports that the seismic activity of cord Caulle over the past 24 hours was characterized by: Mastery of a tremor signal with an oscillating behavior , registered a pulse signal of high intensity and harmonic character, with durations of about 3-10 minutes, amid a continuous signal of lower intensity, with a spectral content of greater bandwidth. It highlights the registration of three (3) episodes of greater intensity, at 18:43, 20:28 and 21:39 local time yesterday, with small displacements of 104, 66 and 74 cm2, respectively, values %u200B%u200Bconsidered high. Tremor reduced displacement continued, varied between 1 and 4 cm2, showing a downward trend. On average, there were 2 earthquakes / time, type Volcano-tectonic (VT) and Hybrid (HB) which did not exceed magnitude (ML) equals to 2.6. The locations were concentrated in an area near the center of emission, with depths between 3.8 and 4.5 km. Through the cameras installed around the volcano, the eruption column was observed, directed toward the NE reaching heights of about 3-4 km in the hours. Its color was dark, filled with fine ash. Forecasting pyroclastic dispersion modeling performed by numerical staff "Volcanic Risk Project" of SERNAGEOMIN, indicated during the morning, the dispersion is NE and E, for then change to the E in the rest of the day. In the morning ashfall was reported in populations of fine Ri�inahue (5-10mm) Llifen, Futrono and Curarrehue. continued seismic activity related to a dynamic channel open, associated with the exhaust and the rise of magma body. Although there were no new aerial observations, we infer that the outpouring of lava continues, based on recording the pulses of high intensity tremor. The chances of an explosive event still remain, due to possible obstruction of the duct by the lava emitted and / or changes in the dynamics of the eruption. Since the possibility of occurrence of explosive events continues, also still has the consequent threat generation pyroclastic flows. Consequently, it highlights the dangers of proximity to the upper reaches of the river valley and river Nilahue Buttress by the occurrence of these phenomena, especially in the area upstream of the bridge and La Mula Quirrasco sector. The occurrence of rainfall in the region , associated with high accumulation of pyroclastic material (ash, pumice flows) in the headwaters of rivers rising in the volcanic complex, favoring the likelihood of secondary lahars generated by damming their banks while the drag of such material to the occurrence of rain. The main channels that can be affected by lahars in the current situation are the northeast: Nilahue river, river Buttress; southeast: Gol Gol basin and channels Puyehue National Park. The eruption process continues and may return to presented an increase in the activity. Therefore preserved in volcanic alert level RED. SERNAGEOMIN - OVDAS online monitoring continues 24 hours, and report in a timely manner about any changes in the activity of the volcano. National Service of Geology and Mining - SERNAGEOMIN Volcano Observatory de los Andes del Sur - OVDAS June 22, 2011

Morning all! See that the ECMWF is finally starting to jump onboard, so that means the UKMET should jump on soon. GFS, CMC & NOGAPS have been consistently developing this system for the past several days. I don't see this system going as far south as the ECMWF is indicating it will, because usually the ECMWF is the most southern solution and it only shows this barely avoiding the Mexican coastline as it develops. I think its showing either the ridge being to strong or the ridge building in too quickly over it.

Quoting Levi32:


I agree with their assessment.

Thanks, Levi! LOL

A GoM AoI:



SSTs are 29C, shear at 25 kt and falling, upper-level anticyclone present.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all! See that the ECMWF is finally starting to jump onboard, so that means the UKMET should jump on soon. GFS, CMC & NOGAPS have been consistently developing this system for the past several days. I don't see this system going as far south as the ECMWF is indicating it will, because usually the ECMWF is the most southern solution and it only shows this barely avoiding the Mexican coastline as it develops. I think its showing either the ridge being to strong or the ridge building in too quickly over it.

It all depends on the ridge as how strong or not it will be,to be a repeat of last year's hurricane Alex track or not.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff, how much rain did you get? I got a whopping 2.05" at the house. LOT more than I expected, being so close to the NWS near the cone of silence, it's hard to depict how much rain is really fallen.

1.41"

About what I expected, we had a decent cell come over us and drop some happiness.. I mean rain on us.

Not much runoff (which is expected), but I noticed the idiots (people popping off firecrackers one street back) came out, and the grass is already greening up and growing.

Take some more video!

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
severe weather in the northeast!!

Does anyone know if there is model support for the storm crossing florida and riding up the east coast..are there even long range models like the GFS for the Nogaps, EWCMF and CMC?

Burn ban in effect here in Brevard. Need some rain so I can launch my fireworks this 4th of July!

Quoting AstroHurricane001:
A GoM AoI:



SSTs are 29C, shear at 25 kt and falling, upper-level anticyclone present.

But it seems to be getting torn up and/or pushed south...well, maybe not. Definitely moving south though.WV 70w/25n looks interesting.

Japan has looooong history of earthquakes

It shake you long time....

:)

XX/AOI/XX
MARK
24.80N/94.55W

Quoting AstroHurricane001:
A GoM AoI:



SSTs are 29C, shear at 25 kt and falling, upper-level anticyclone present.

This is nothing but an MCS - nothing tropical here, lets move on and not sensationalize something.

Alright, pretty big update from me regarding the possibility of a system in the Caribbean/Gulf. Enjoy!
Arlene possible next week 6/23/11

Quoting Chucktown:


This is nothing but an MCS - nothing tropical here, lets move on and not sensationalize something.

ya true lets not be like them tv people

lol

its nothing but an area of interest nothing more nothing less

Quoting Minnemike:
missing a sarcasm flag, or a couple screws?... Skyepony, that is a pretty cool image, and most certainly shows them well. thanks for sharing :)

Screws Loose huh?

http://foia.abovetopsecret.com/ultimate_UFO/Advan ced/HAARPResearchAndApplications.pdf

http://www.ursi.org/Proceedings/ProcGA02/papers/p 0936.pdf

http://www.ursi.org/Proceedings/ProcGA02/papers/p 0936.pdf


But our gov. wouldn't do anything like that huh? They wouldn't go around in the 1950's and spread deadly virisis for test.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgfxcuWq4oA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMgPi6_01FE