Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Record flooding in North Dakota forces evacuation of 11,000
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:10 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011 +7
A 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 year flood is in progress in North Dakota along the Souris River, where flood heights never seen in recorded history are putting unprecedented pressure on the river's levees. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot, North Dakota, the state's 4th largest city, is full to overflowing. Record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from overtopping. A mandatory evacuation of 11,000 residents from Minot is underway, and must be completed before Thursday morning, when water levels on the Souris River are expected to rise several feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Massive rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already almost a foot above the previous all-time highest mark, and all that water will arrive in Minot beginning on Thursday, likely overwhelming the city's levees and flooding large portions of the city for two or more weeks.


Figure 1. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 4th highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' Thursday night. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.


Figure 2. The Souris River (in pink) is part of the Red River drainage basin. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Heavy rains this week over the neighboring Missouri River watershed forced the Army Corps of Engineers today to increase the flow rate at the key Gavins Point Dam to a record 160,000 cubic feet per second. The dam was already releasing water at more than double the previous record flow rate, and the increased flow is expected to raise flood heights by 0.3 - 0.7 feet along the Missouri River from Omaha to Kansas City. There have already been two levee failures and two places where levees have been overtopped along the Missouri River this month, resulting in large-scale flooding of low-lying farmlands. "This continues to be a very dynamic situation and dangerous at the same time," said Brig. Gen. John McMahon, commander of the Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula about seven days from now. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Beatriz is gone, after being torn apart by Mexico's high mountains during landfall. Beatriz is responsible for at least three deaths in Mexico.

Jeff Masters
Touchdown near York, Nebraska (StormTrain)
Tornado touching down less than a 1/2 mile from our location west of York, NE. The storm did miss the farm in this photo, but a few farms were hit and a train was derailed as it moved to the northeast.
Touchdown near York, Nebraska
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1 (Greyelf)
Taken 6/20/11 at Haworth Park, which is right along the Missouri River. Note the gazebo on the left 1/3 of the shot that I've made reference to in prior shots (5/28/11 when flooding first started and later shot on 6/13/11). The gazebo now has water in it almost up to it's roof. Of note, when I drove by again this morning on 6/21/11, the water had raised again after last night's rain. I'm never getting back into that gazebo at this rate.
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1
Categories: Flood
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751. hurricanejunky 10:52 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not even kidding. That is the wackiest core structure I think I've ever seen the GFS give a developing tropical cyclone. Some mega-annular TS or something lol.



What direction does it have it going from that point?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875
752. Levi32 10:53 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


All the images are returning a similar structure.



It could be a coincidence, but I have a feeling they may be seeing a steadily developing TS hitting the Yucatan, and then having the crossing weakening the core. The feeder bands that get over the water first then strengthen as the system broadens, resulting in a broader structure that lacks a strong inner core. That usually happens more with strong hurricanes making the crossing, but it could happen with a large enough tropical storm as well.
Member Since: Novämber 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462
753. Levi32 10:54 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Back after work.
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754. WeatherNerdPR 10:54 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Hey everyone! Have the model runs changed, or are they still showing Arlene?
Member Since: Juli 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464
755. washingtonian115 10:56 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Well I'm signing off for the night.Have a good one.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
756. CosmicEvents 10:56 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not even kidding. That is the wackiest core structure I think I've ever seen the GFS give a developing tropical cyclone. Some mega-annular TS or something lol.


Is it possible to have a sub tropical storm in the GOM, in June?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099
757. AstroHurricane001 10:56 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    


Is Meari bifurcating?
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758. PcolaDan 10:57 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
759. Patrap 10:57 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
..Thats no Moon,,


...thats a Atlantic 2011 Annular SuperCane..



Chewy, warm up the G-4
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761. PcolaDan 10:57 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Okay, she's gone. It's safe to talk now. :)
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762. CybrTeddy 10:58 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
GFS 216 hours out.. minimal Hurricane or high end TS hitting Texas.
Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280
763. Grothar 10:58 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


It could be a coincidence, but I have a feeling they may be seeing a steadily developing TS hitting the Yucatan, and then having the crossing weakening the core. The feeder bands that get over the water first then strengthen as the system broadens, resulting in a broader structure that lacks a strong inner core. That usually happens more with strong hurricanes making the crossing, but it could happen with a large enough tropical storm as well.


Unless the energy already starts in the Bay of Campeche first, which I doubt right now. What I was seeing, (OK, what we were seeing) last week was the development of two separate lows being supported by the new waves entering the Caribbean. Most models, as you know, have backed off on this scenario. It will be interesting to see which one wins out. As we both agreed, the 26 or 27 will be interesting to watch. I may change my thinking to development in the Bay of Campeche, it the new models confirm my theory. What do you think?
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19555
765. washingtonian115 11:00 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:
Okay, she's gone. It's safe to talk now. :)
In lurk mode that is.Hahaheee..
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766. CatfishJones 11:00 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
M6.7 off the East Coast of Honshu...
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767. Patrap 11:00 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
768. SQUAWK 11:01 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting beell:


choot em

Thank you Beell. That really did have me LOL. You forgot to ad "Lizabeth."
Member Since: Dezämber 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497
769. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:02 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
..Thats no Moon,,


...thats a Atlantic 2011 Annular SuperCane..



Chewy, warm up the G-4
texas drought buster hurricane style
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
770. Rmadillo 11:03 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting CatfishJones:
M6.7 off the East Coast of Honshu...


A 6.8 brought down the I-5 freeway in between LosAngelas and Vegas about 19 years ago. 6.7 ain't nuthin' to sneeze at.
Member Since: Mai 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
771. Grothar 11:04 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


It could be a coincidence, but I have a feeling they may be seeing a steadily developing TS hitting the Yucatan, and then having the crossing weakening the core. The feeder bands that get over the water first then strengthen as the system broadens, resulting in a broader structure that lacks a strong inner core. That usually happens more with strong hurricanes making the crossing, but it could happen with a large enough tropical storm as well.



The models are still calling for development in the Bay of Campeche. That would pretty much keep the Yucatan storm free

Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19555
773. Stormchaser2007 11:06 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    


Member Since: Juni 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249
774. Grothar 11:07 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19555
775. Patrap 11:07 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
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776. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:08 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
I've never seen anything like this be depicted on a model run before.
Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
777. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:08 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
REMEMBER MODELS ARE MEANT TO BE USED AS GUIDANCE ONLY AND DONOT DEPICT FINAL OUTCOME TO ANY ONE SINGLE EVENT THINGS CAN AND WILL CHANGE
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
778. Rmadillo 11:09 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've never seen anything like this be depicted on a model run before.


get used to it- this summer's gonna have plenty of that up it's sleeve, I imagine so.
Member Since: Mai 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 102
779. Grothar 11:12 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:




Nice images, Storm. I see you hid the link so we wouldn't find them. LOL
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19555
781. clwstmchasr 11:13 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
If I live in Texas (I live in FL) it is time to start paying just a little bit more attention to the model runs.
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782. Patrap 11:14 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
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784. EYEStoSEA 11:16 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Whoa !!..what the devil is that on the GFS ? I'm running behind, undoubtedly..
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785. j2008 11:17 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Woah!!! This is quite some storm, what wave might it form out of??
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787. Houstonweathergrl 11:18 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Getting a wee bit nervous here !
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788. brazocane 11:19 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Finally got some rain...first time in months...recorded just under 3 inches here in League City Tx...maybe more on the way in 7 days?
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789. PcolaDan 11:20 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting washingtonian115:
In lurk mode that is.Hahaheee..


ARGH, caught again
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
790. WeatherNerdPR 11:20 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



What is that?! Looks super freaky!
Member Since: Juli 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464
791. Patrap 11:21 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
792. ShenValleyFlyFish 11:23 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting washingtonian115:
So that mean Mexico will get it then.
Mexico needs rain, just not deluge.
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793. Patrap 11:25 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    


Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
794. WeatherNerdPR 11:26 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not even kidding. That is the wackiest core structure I think I've ever seen the GFS give a developing tropical cyclone. Some mega-annular TS or something lol.


lol
Member Since: Juli 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464
795. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:29 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
we need to start watching for tropical development as early as Friday as our tropical wave entering the Caribbean interacts with the monsoonal low north of Panama in the western Caribbean.
Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
797. Stormchaser2007 11:31 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Its appears likely that a large tropical disturbance will form near Nicaragua in about two and a half days. Whether or not this disturbance can avoid land and develop will remain to be seen.

Still interesting nonetheless.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249
799. cg2916 11:38 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Here in SC, we had a tornado signature... headed for me...
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800. j2008 11:39 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Its appears likely that a large tropical disturbance will form near Nicaragua in about two and a half days. Whether or not this disturbance can avoid land and develop will remain to be seen.

Still interesting nonetheless.

I'm sure some places will be open to getting a TS to help out with thier dryness problems.
Member Since: Dezämber 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 204
801. cg2916 11:40 PM GMT am 22. Juni 2011    
A huge, seemingly subtropical storm on the GFS in the Gulf. Very odd.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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