Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:18 PM GMT am 17. Juni 2011

The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.

Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous record
Six flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.

Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

Four-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
Powerful southwest winds of 20 - 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph will continue through Saturday in Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, making progress containing the region's severe fires difficult. Even worse conditions are begin predicted for Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts forecasts that wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on record
On Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone! I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood (BEME)

Another old farmstead,within the wetlands 'project'..near Highway 2 [to Nebraska City,Nebraska]..Water's getting higher. [photo taken Wednesday afternoon]

Won't be Open Much Longer (Nikongranny)

Highway 2 east of Nebraska City will be closing very soon.

Trying to Keep Ahead (Nikongranny)

of the approaching water. Crews working frantically building this earth berm to keep the advancing Missouri River out of Hamburg.

Categories: Flood

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1051. goosegirl1 02:29 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting aquak9: no, it's a swamp fire (there's an oxymoron for ya) that's been burning for weeks. Winds keep shifting, bringing heavy smoke to some area. That's just smoke you see on that loop. (not spamming) if anyone wants to see some pics of the blueberry farm- it was awesome- just click on my name and it'll take you to my blog. Or I can post an off-topic pic here and take it back down in a few minutes. Still off-topic- the big bugger is a tomato horn worm, that will grow up to become a cute little hummingbird moth. Def an ugly duckling lifespan there. I leave them alone, because they grow up to be so pretty, but they are scary babies... Member Since: Dezämber 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 860

1052. Tropicsweatherpr 02:33 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8248

1053. aquak9 02:36 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
goosegirl- yeah they are scary, and that stinger on the end will leave ya hurtin' for days. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1054. SHOREACRESTX 02:40 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
HAPPY FATHERS DAY to all you weather gurus !! Member Since: Juni 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

1055. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:44 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Good morning all, and Happy Father's day to all the dads out there! I see we now have Tropical Depression #2 in the Eastern Pacific. Looks healthy, and appears poised to become the second named storm of the 2011 Pacific season - Beatriz. Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25345

1056. Ameister12 02:45 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.7N 99.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

1057. AussieStorm 02:48 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Tornadoes wreak mayhem in NZ city Two tornadoes have hit the city of New Plymouth on New Zealand's North Island. The tornadoes ripped through the city in the middle of the night, tearing roofs off buildings, shattering windows and cutting power. There have been no reports of injuries. Resident Adrian Chivers says at first he thought it was an earthquake. "I woke up with the sound of ... like an express train coming around the house," he said. "At first I thought it was an earthquake. "But then the heavy rain... I got out of bed to see what was happening - electricity off and all mayhem outside and debris all over my property and I found out that next door, Dave, his roof has been ripped off." Another local, Travis West, says one of the tornadoes also took the roof off his house. "I woke up to the sound of what sounded like really heavy hail and then it just turned into this sound of like a freight train hitting our house and you could hear the nails ripping out," he said. "There was just panic really and we came outside to find that the roof had come off." Officials say there may have been another tornado in the nearby town of Bell Block, where there has been more damage to buildings. Member Since: Septämber 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13358

1058. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:51 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
On the Severe Weather side, a moderate to major outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected this afternoon across a good chunk of the nation (see map below). The Storm Prediction Center has outlined extreme northern Kansas, southern Nebraska, the extreme northwest tip of Missouri, the extreme southwest tip of Iowa, and extreme eastern Colorado in a moderate risk for severe weather - 10% tornado, 30-45% wind, 45% hatched hail. Parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virgina are also under the gun of severe weather (see map below). Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25345

1060. bappit 03:01 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus: Margate here. and all my herbs have died from the heat. i have been watering and they just gave up it seems. I have known people to over water in drought. Killed their plants with kindness. Just a possibility. Member Since: Mai 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4387

1061. blsealevel 03:15 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS... A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT MAY UNFOLD OVER ERN AZ...NM...AND PORTIONS OF W TX. BACKGROUND CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SPREAD OF NEW AND EXISTING FIRES GIVEN ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT /MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 100-110 DEG F/ IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND W TX...AND WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO 3-5 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT FARTHER W OVER AZ/NM /90S-LOW 100S OVER THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS/...BUT WITH A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING FIXED OVER THE REGION SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES STILL APPEAR PROBABLE TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE FIRST OVER ERN AZ/NM TO 30-40 MPH BY LATE MORNING /WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50-55 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS/...AND EVENTUALLY OVER ERN NM AND W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1064. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:38 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Grothar: Oh, yes I did. I said Sunday. Go back and look on Fridays and yesterdays entries. Ha ha haha. :P Shows how much you pay attention. I even gave the upper atmosphere conditions as to why it would happen. ok ok calm down its ok you can have perks on the call put down the cane no one needs to get hurt here Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1065. bohonkweatherman 03:39 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting IKE: The advantage to no rain...I don't have to mow the yard. Dead grass continues! Quoting IKE: The advantage to no rain...I don't have to mow the yard. Dead grass continues! Very few insects also, the heat has killed most of them in Texas :) Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:39 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
WTPN31 PHNC 191600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (TWO) WARNING NR 001 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z.// NNNN Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1067. bohonkweatherman 03:43 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers out there. Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1068. PcolaDan 03:43 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: ok ok calm down its ok you can have perks on the call put down the cane* no one needs to get hurt here* LOL don't want him to fall do you? lol Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1069. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:44 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
T.C.F.W. 02E/TD/B/CX MARK 13.13N/100.8W Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1070. bohonkweatherman 03:46 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Rain chances in Central Texas now looking bleak unfortunately, It was 95 when i went to bed at 1030 pm and 91 at 10 am this morning. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE UNKIND ON PRECIPATION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...COMPARED TO THE MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIOS THAT WERE SUGGESTED A FEW DAYS AGO. A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IS STILL DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DESPITE THE EVENT GETTING CLOSER IN TIME. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO THE SOUTH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE UNCERTAINTY...INCLUDING A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL PLUME TAP FROM THE PACIFIC AND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BELIZE. WHILE EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE INPUT INTO THE RIDGE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES TX ON WEDNESDAY...THE MORE RECENT MODEL DATA LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY. SINCE THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY MORE SUBTLE TREND...WILL OPT FOR A MORE BEARISH FORECAST AND NUDGE HIGH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE GUIDANCES AND CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1071. blsealevel 03:51 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
For what its worth NE TX might get some rain in a couple days. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1072. blsealevel 03:56 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Unforntently it isnt going to be much help!! Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1073. bohonkweatherman 03:57 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting blsealevel: For what its worth NE TX might get some rain in a couple days. The wetter portions of Texas have been getting the rain like North and Northeast Texas. Just like in the U.S. the flooded parts of the U.S. are getting plenty of rain while the areas that have been dry are basically staying dry. There was a little rain in Texas yesterday but amounts were very light for the most part and came after highs of over 105 degrees. Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1074. bohonkweatherman 04:03 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting blsealevel: Unforntently it isnt going to be much help!! Well i have gone 10 months without much rain, I hope these predictions are Wrong. Tropical moisture of any kind could change these predictions. All we have is hope. Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1075. txjac 04:06 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Well i have gone 10 months without much rain, I hope these predictions are Wrong. Tropical moisture of any kind could change these predictions. All we have is hope. I never thought I would see the day that I wanted cloud cover, darkness and rain. I usually just like that at nighttime. I worry about when we do get some rain as it will flood and I live in a flood prone area. My animals are all indoor air conditioned animals and they are all acting strange. Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1567

1076. blsealevel 04:18 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting txjac: I never thought I would see the day that I wanted cloud cover, darkness and rain. I usually just like that at nighttime. I worry about when we do get some rain as it will flood and I live in a flood prone area. My animals are all indoor air conditioned animals and they are all acting strange. Just about all the Gulf Coast states need the rain right now but I cant imagine having to clean up after a bad storm with no AC in 107 to 110 f weather but i guess it would be worth the payoff. Animal and Man alike suffer xtremes. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1077. beell 04:25 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Western trough kinda looks like it is still digging south. Trough base almost to southern California. The more south-the better as far as a ridge breaker and a conduit for moisture over Texas. RAMSDIS/GOES-East 16 km Water Vapor - IR3 Member Since: Septämber 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

1078. wpb 04:30 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/fpls-landmark-twi n-smokestacks-boilers-and-water-tower-1549016.html Member Since: Mai 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 488

1079. islander101010 04:30 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
worst time for s. florida to get hit by a major would be in the middle of august as andrew. no ac for the hottest time of the yr would lead to big problems Member Since: Septämber 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

1080. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:35 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
WTPN51 PGTW 191600 WARNING ATCP MIL 02E NEP 110619153111 2011061912 02E TWO 001 01 305 07 SATL 060 T000 134N 0995W 030 T012 144N 1010W 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD T024 156N 1021W 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 170N 1030W 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD T048 184N 1041W 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD T072 195N 1070W 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 200N 1105W 035 T120 200N 1140W 025 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (TWO) WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/181821Z JUN 11// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REMARKS: 191600Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 100.0W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181821Z NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. // 0211061518 115N 912W 20 0211061600 115N 914W 20 0211061606 115N 918W 20 0211061612 115N 924W 20 0211061618 115N 924W 20 0211061700 117N 926W 20 0211061706 119N 929W 20 0211061712 120N 933W 20 0211061718 121N 937W 25 0211061800 124N 946W 25 0211061806 124N 954W 25 0211061812 124N 963W 25 0211061818 124N 972W 25 0211061900 127N 982W 25 0211061906 130N 989W 25 0211061912 134N 995W 30 NNNN Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1081. EYEStoSEA 04:37 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Just stopped by to say "HAPPY FATHER"S DAY" to all the dads out there. Hope you have a great day :) Member Since: Septämber 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

1082. FirstCoastMan 04:40 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Just because we don't have a named storm so far in the atlantic in june,doesn't mean anything.In july we should began to see some named storms,but remember it only takes one hurricane to hit your area,to make it a bad year. Member Since: August 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

1083. txjac 04:47 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting FirstCoastMan: Just because we don't have a named storm so far in the atlantic in june,doesn't mean anything.In july we should began to see some named storms,but remember it only takes one hurricane to hit your area,to make it a bad year. Totally agree FirstCoast. I think most of us just want rain! Rufus is the only one I've seen wanting a hurricane and I think its because he wants some rain ..lol Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1567

1085. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:53 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
a little warm Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:55 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
some promise Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1087. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:08 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
latest just released Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1088. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:15 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
T.C.F.W. 02E/TS/B/CX MARK 13.21N/101.1W Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1089. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:18 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
am i the only one here or what Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

1090. fishwishin 05:20 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: am i the only one here or what Yes. Member Since: Septämber 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40

1091. bohonkweatherman 05:21 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Seems that way but you are doing a great job :) Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1092. Grothar 05:21 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
No, I just sneaked in (or is that snuk) to see if anything is new. The rugrats are eating now. So, Keep, what's new? Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

1093. caneswatch 05:21 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: a little warm How about very warm? That's a bit scary. Member Since: Oktober 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1094. bohonkweatherman 05:23 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Bring some rain to South Central Texas, we did not get any snow or ice this past winter like North Texas got and we have received little to No rain then move the rain out to West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona then let it end in Florida so they dont complain :) Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1095. caneswatch 05:23 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Grothar: No, I just sneaked in (or is that snuk) to see if anything is new. The rugrats are eating now. So, Keep, what's new? Oh yes, Happy Father's Day everyone! Enjoying yours, Gro? Member Since: Oktober 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1096. aquak9 05:24 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
hi gro, hi keep, etc etc...just not much going on, and all us southerners are too weak from the heat and dehydration to blog. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1097. Grothar 05:25 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: ok ok calm down its ok you can have perks on the call put down the cane no one needs to get hurt here Who do I sound like when I post those? LOL (Hope the others know I'm kidding) I didn't think of that when I wrote it? Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

1098. caneswatch 05:26 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting aquak9: hi gro, hi keep, etc etc...just not much going on, and all us southerners are too weak from the heat and dehydration to blog. Tell me about it. It's too hot to do anything LOL Member Since: Oktober 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1099. Grothar 05:27 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting caneswatch: Oh yes, Happy Father's Day everyone! Enjoying yours, Gro? Enjoying my What??? Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

1100. DeerfieldBeachGuy 05:27 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Sea Breeze action starting early today, although still no rain here in Deerfield Beach. Forecasters are calling for strong to severe storms later today along the Atlantic coastal areas and interiors in South Florida as instability is on the rise in the area. I really, really hope we get in on some of the action today in Deerfield Beach. We desperately need it!! Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 318

1101. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:27 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Bring some rain to South Central Texas, we did not get any snow or ice this past winter like North Texas got and we have received little to No rain then move the rain out to West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona then let it end in Florida so they dont complain :) i can sent ya all the snow you want but we got to wait till dec for that to happen that boat has shipped out Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

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