Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:18 PM GMT am 17. Juni 2011

The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.

Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous record
Six flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.

Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

Four-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
Powerful southwest winds of 20 - 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph will continue through Saturday in Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, making progress containing the region's severe fires difficult. Even worse conditions are begin predicted for Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts forecasts that wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on record
On Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone! I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood (BEME)

Another old farmstead,within the wetlands 'project'..near Highway 2 [to Nebraska City,Nebraska]..Water's getting higher. [photo taken Wednesday afternoon]

Won't be Open Much Longer (Nikongranny)

Highway 2 east of Nebraska City will be closing very soon.

Trying to Keep Ahead (Nikongranny)

of the approaching water. Crews working frantically building this earth berm to keep the advancing Missouri River out of Hamburg.

Categories: Flood

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1001. IKE 12:11 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
The advantage to no rain...I don't have to mow the yard. Dead grass continues! Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

1002. clwstmchasr 12:21 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
All is quiet in the Atlantic basin. No development expected for the next several days. Member Since: Juli 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777

1003. Grothar 12:29 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting PRZEDCASTER: Pompano Beach here , yeah you know it's bad when the weeds are dying ! Coral Ridge here. Same here. AND HOT!! Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1004. beell 12:40 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting RTLSNK: Just what the Mississippi River does not need, more water. :( Missouri River Valley does not need it either. QPF 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday Member Since: Septämber 11, 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13069

1005. Neapolitan 01:02 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
TD 2 in the EPAC: EP, 02, 2011061912, , BEST, 0, 134N, 995W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, Member Since: Novämber 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11302

1006. Tropicsweatherpr 01:03 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
TD 2-E at 8 AM PDT. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_ep922011_ep022011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106191257 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8768

1007. emcf30 01:03 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
A severe weather outbreak is likely across portions of the Northern Plains this afternoon afternoon and evening. A longwave trough will rapidly develop across the Western United States as a strong mid level jet streak dives southeastward. As the trough deepens, a surface low will rapidly develop in East Colorado/West Kansas. As the low-level jet greatly increases to 50-60 knots around 00z, along with sufficient shear, it will likely lead to an increased tornado potential late this afternoon and tonight. The Energy Helicity Index (EHI)will be very high. Typically values >1 are sufficient for tornadoes. Values >5 have been associated with significant tornadoes and values > 10 as we know can lead to severe, long track tornadoes as we have seen this year. It will get very interesting this afternoon and will continue into Monday and Tuesday. The models have been consistent for well over a week on this severe weather outbreak. Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1008. aquak9 01:05 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
sigh... Good morning dayshift. Quick'n'easy version, nouns first: Ridge, Heat, Heat Indices, Triple Digits. Then Adjectives: Smokey, Dangerous, Oppresive A verb or two- Reaching, Drying, Breathing Mix n match as needed. Feel free to add or amend. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1009. Patrap 01:08 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
auburn and family are nice guest,,they brought Venison,,!!! Yeah baby! Happy Fatha's day to all you Dads too. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1010. emcf30 01:13 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Ironicly, this will the same area Reed will be targeting. The same spot as 1 year ago today Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1011. aquak9 01:15 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
hoping the winds don't switch to the south. About 3 hours of loop here. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1012. blsealevel 01:20 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Happy Fathers Day Patrap and the Gang. Temperature: New Orleans 87.8 °F Feels Like 101 °F and it ant even 9:00 am yet!! Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1013. blsealevel 01:22 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting aquak9: hoping the winds don't switch to the south. About 3 hours of loop here. Wow did something blow up? Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1015. Patrap 01:26 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
1012. blsealevel Warm morning here fer sure,,have a fine Fatha's day too Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1016. emcf30 01:26 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting aquak9: hoping the winds don't switch to the south. About 3 hours of loop here. There are a total of 271,862 acres that have burnt in that area. Seems like still kicking strong this morning. If it is pumping that much out this morning, its going to be a bad day on the fire lines. Burnt Area: 19,542 Acres Location: Ware County, GA (12 MILES W OF WAYCROSS) Cause: Under Investigation Incident Team Type: IMT Type 3 Team Leader: KRIS BUTLER Containment Status: 30% contained) Burnt Area: 19,128 Acres Location: Charlton County, GA (12 MILES S OF HOBOKEN GA) Cause: Under Investigation Incident Team Type: IMT Type 3 Team Leader: Kris Butler Containment Status: 50% contained) Burnt Area: 233,606 Acres (11% increase from yesterday) Location: Charlton County, GA (Okefenokee NWR, 5 miles NE of Fargo, GA) Cause: Lightning Incident Team Type: IMT Type D Team Leader: Floyd/Crow/Quesinberry Containment Status: 60% contained) Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1017. Patrap 01:27 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Watch out for the GREEN BALL Gremlin in the Atlantic later this week. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1018. Grothar 01:27 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
I know there were some on here who didn't think 92E would turn into much, but it sure looks the the upper level environment fooled some again. Looks pretty healthy right now and might even get better. I will be gone most of the day. Happy Father's Day to all you Father's out there. Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1019. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:29 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
T.C.F.W. 02E/TD/B/CX MARK 13.13N/100.8W Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1020. KBgetoutthegrill 01:33 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Key Biscayne here, What's the old joke....It's so dry here, the fish are knocking on the door, askin' for a drink of water. It’s so dry, the trees are bribing the dogs. It’s so dry in Texas that the Baptists are starting to baptize by sprinkling, the Methodists are using wet-wipes, the Presbyterians are giving out rain-checks, and the Catholics are praying for the wine to turn back into water. Member Since: Oktober 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

1021. Chicklit 01:35 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Good Morning, and Happy Father's Day to all of the Dads, Step Dads, Expectant Dads! The thunderstorms that came through ECFL yesterday shorted out my aquarium filter. This is a good reminder to unplug the electronics before going on vacation and unplug the computer and tv when there's a lot of lightening. Member Since: Juli 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10380

1022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:35 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1023. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:37 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1025. SLU 01:38 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting seasonbust2011: well we can say now june is a bust i see no tropical activity for the month of june...this is not unusual to happen in this month...we will see what happens in july as for as a bust... Welcome to Wunderblog :) Member Since: Juli 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3052

1026. Neapolitan 01:39 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
The Wallow Fire is up to 511,118 acres, or 799 square miles. One the plus side, the fire is now 44% contained. On the negative, today should present the worst weatehr conditions to-date, with temps in the 90s, humidity in the single digits, and winds gusting to 50mph. The Horseshoe Two has grown to 210,311 acres (329 square mile), but it's 75% contained, and the dangerous Monument Fire is relatively "small" at just under 21,000 acres, and 27% contained. All three fires face "extreme growth potential" conditions today. Member Since: Novämber 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11302

1027. blsealevel 01:40 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Upper Divergence Lower Convergence Wind Shear As bad as everyone on the coast needs the rain it's probably a good thing this is setting up over land. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1028. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:42 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
2011 Storms All Active Year Atlantic East Pacific 02E.TWO Central Pacific West Pacific 99W.INVEST 06W.SIX Indian Ocean 99B.INVEST Southern Hemisphere Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1029. Grothar 01:44 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010: look like a tropical d to me!! I just posted that, Get your own images, Jason!!!!! :) Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1030. Grothar 01:46 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1031. Grothar 01:48 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Navy now has it as 2E. Could it be? Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1032. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:50 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting seasonbust2011: well we can say now june is a bust i see no tropical activity for the month of june...this is not unusual to happen in this month...we will see what happens in july as for as a bust... maybe you should flush and look again that flush model must be full and giving you a false feed back of info Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1033. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:51 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Grothar: Navy now has it as 2E. Could it be? already label gro check post 1019 and 1028 Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:54 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
T.C.F.W. 02E/TD/B/CX MARK 13.13N/100.8W Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1037. Grothar 01:55 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: already label gro check post 1019 and 1028 Alright, alright, What are you the blog monitor? So I missed it. I've been saying it was going to do this for days. :) Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1038. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:58 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Grothar: Alright, alright, What are you the blog monitor? So I missed it. I've been saying it was going to do this for days. :) ya you did just not what day it was going to do it Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

1039. blsealevel 02:02 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Shear seems to be dropping wont take very long for this to get going, Mexico can use some weather also hopefully this thing can go up the coast alittle and curve to the North East and give AZ some much needed help. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1040. Grothar 02:03 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: ya you did just not what day it was going to do it Oh, yes I did. I said Sunday. Go back and look on Fridays and yesterdays entries. Ha ha haha. :P Shows how much you pay attention. I even gave the upper atmosphere conditions as to why it would happen. Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1041. Skyepony (Mod) 02:03 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Grothar: Navy now has it as 2E. Could it be? This 10hr old ASCAT looks pretty good. Organized more since. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29957

1042. Grothar 02:04 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Skyepony: This 10hr old ASCAT looks pretty good. Organized more since. et tu, Skye? :) Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1043. Skyepony (Mod) 02:10 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
That's a lot of red flag warning.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29957

1044. Tropicsweatherpr 02:13 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Recon will be going to TD2-E/Beatriz on tuesday afternoon. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0945 AM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-019 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 18.4N 104.1W AT 21/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8768

1045. HawkPhotographyDOTus 02:13 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting Grothar: Coral Ridge here. Same here. AND HOT!! Margate here. and all my herbs have died from the heat. i have been watering and they just gave up it seems. Member Since: Oktober 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

1046. blsealevel 02:15 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1047. blsealevel 02:18 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1048. aquak9 02:21 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting blsealevel: Wow did something blow up? no, it's a swamp fire (there's an oxymoron for ya) that's been burning for weeks. Winds keep shifting, bringing heavy smoke to some area. That's just smoke you see on that loop. (not spamming) if anyone wants to see some pics of the blueberry farm- it was awesome- just click on my name and it'll take you to my blog. Or I can post an off-topic pic here and take it back down in a few minutes. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1049. Grothar 02:25 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus: Margate here. and all my herbs have died from the heat. i have been watering and they just gave up it seems. Shame. Even ones in the shade can go fast with this type of heat. We were going to have an outside thing here today. No, Way!!!! If they want to see me they can come inside. Is is not today here or what? Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19662

1050. blsealevel 02:28 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Well on the bright side should'nt have no skeeters and nats for a while. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1051. goosegirl1 02:29 PM GMT am 19. Juni 2011
Quoting aquak9: no, it's a swamp fire (there's an oxymoron for ya) that's been burning for weeks. Winds keep shifting, bringing heavy smoke to some area. That's just smoke you see on that loop. (not spamming) if anyone wants to see some pics of the blueberry farm- it was awesome- just click on my name and it'll take you to my blog. Or I can post an off-topic pic here and take it back down in a few minutes. Still off-topic- the big bugger is a tomato horn worm, that will grow up to become a cute little hummingbird moth. Def an ugly duckling lifespan there. I leave them alone, because they grow up to be so pretty, but they are scary babies... Member Since: Dezämber 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 899

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