Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Steering

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Quoting Weather456:
Most F5 keys should be repaired by now. A dash of lubricant and they will be good to go when Danny forms.

456, in your opinion, do you think Danny will form this week?

Vorticity

Link

Quoting Weather456:
Most F5 keys should be repaired by now. A dash of lubricant and they will be good to go when Danny forms.

Lubricant?.... LOL

Not exactly sure why TPC mentioned the wave in the central atl...Convective blow up is purely being inhanced by the large tractor tire rolling westward.Although once the ull gets out the way conditions could become favorable in the bahamas region as seen here on the Roundy Probabilities.Not much ridgeing so anything developing there should track in a northward fashion.

I said hello
they said yellow
I said no way
they said lets play
I said no fay
they said on pay day
I said go away
they said on north dade

Quoting Relix:


You never know!!

Jeanne 2004.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased over the past several hours in association with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Any development of this system will be slow to occur over the next couple of days as it moves toward the west-northwest at 20 to 25 mph. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

I just heard of those "spectators" washed into the sea..all I have to say, is anybody 18 & older is a total idiot..and for the parent of the little girl..shame on you

Quoting AllStar17:


456, in your opinion, do you think Danny will form this week?

there is a good chance

havnt ignore model concensus especially when the ECMWF is involved.

Friday



Model consensus - the fact this area (not the ULL) seems to be broad, is one reason why all models differ on point of intialization.

Quoting stormpetrol:
322. stormpetrol 9:49 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Does anyone else think a yellow circle might be on the "cat-looking" disturbance tonight or tommorow?

A yellow circle was there when it was around 30W and then removed, wouldn't be surprised to see it there again around 15/55 then again who knows

Must say I'm kinda surprised to see a yellow circle there ,even though I kinda expected it.

Did you just wake up ? Already yellow. LOL

Are you implying the wave at 50-something would track toward Bahama and not into the Caribbean?

Quoting antonio28:



Jeanne 2004.

Yup. I remember how it rapidly intensified before hitting us in PR. Was crazy.

Quoting Chicklit:
Are you implying the wave at 50-something would track toward Bahama and not into the Caribbean?

note the NHC/TPC said moving wnw. It will track in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea but on that motion it would end up north of Hispaniola or Cuba

TPC/TAFB 72 hour surface forecast

Quoting Weather456:


note the NHC/TPC said moving wnw. It will track in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea but on that motion it would end up north of Hispaniola or Cuba

depends on were the center of this thing is, if it ever gets one..

Isn't there supposed to be the tail end of a trough coming off the CONUS between THE CAROLINAS and Florida?
Link

If so, that would make five, wouldn't it?

all models differ on point of intialization. Weather456
there is something creepy about that
JM says this a.m.:
Most of the models are calling for the possible development of a tropical cyclone in the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation--the remains of the cold front that pushed off the U.S. East Coast this morning, plus a tropical wave that is currently approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. We will also need to watch the region off the coast of Africa this week.

Quoting Chicklit:
Isn't there supposed to be the tail end of a trough coming off the CONUS between THE CAROLINAS and Florida?
Link

If so, that would make five, wouldn't it?

that is a HUGE dip in the jet stream.. I cant believe a cold front is moving across central florida....in AUGUST

I must say, Bill was really sweet though.
Oh yeah, and there's the Gulf.
Loop

I don't have the patience for all of this but some of you might want to navigate. Link

Quoting Hurricane009:
I would not be suprised to see it turn orange by tomorrow night, even though it is poorly organized

Sorry 009, I didn't see the one part of your comment.

Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


First of all, there is no TWO till 2am.
Second of all, why would it become orange? It still needs to be more organized. Probably orange by Tommorow or Tuesday if it persists.

lol did you read what he posted
He said tomorrow night as in 24hrs from now xD

Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


First of all, there is no TWO till 2am.
Second of all, why would it become orange? It still needs to be more organized. Probably orange by Tommorow or Tuesday if it persists.

He said tomorrow night. I think 2 am is tomorrow mornign.

POST UPDATED:
South Florida StormWatch

AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
16N/54W

Evening all.

Does anyone know of any other site that shows the things that the CIMSS site has. Its been down nearly all day i guess.

The ULL is disipating... Danny on the edge of the courner.

Current shear

Question for me now is not so much will something happen in that area, it'sm more how soon / how much will it spin up.

Don't like the idea of a Katrina-like blowup just North of Hispaniola or PR, headed this way. But seems to be at least in the range of potential possibilities right now.... :o(

BTW, the Miss Universe Pageant is being held on Paradise Island in the Bahamas tonight....

Lightning is sure increasing with it

nothing on the surface so nothing to worry about ....for the moment

Tampaspin~ try this link to cimss, been working for me. The newer one..

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Bill looks to be a couple hours away from the Avalon Peninsula--not many hurricanes keep enough tropical characteristics to be characterized as hurricanes when making landfall in Newfoundland.

Looks like Bill will pass just to the north of saint pierre island, and may make landfall at harbor bretton, newfoundland. Bill will officially not be a fish storm of any kind, and cape race may get some strong winds.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Question for me now is not so much will something happen in that area, it'sm more how soon / how much will it spin up.

Don't like the idea of a Katrina-like blowup just North of Hispaniola or PR, headed this way. But seems to be at least in the range of potential possibilities right now.... :o(

BTW, the Miss Universe Pageant is being held on Paradise Island in the Bahamas tonight....

I need another pair of eyes. On the SST map on this site there appears a large swath in the central Atlantic. Could this reflect the upswelling of Bill? Anyone can take a look and tell me if this is the case. If it is the central Atlantic has a large cooled area. Has anyone noticed it before?

The wave is at 54W, QuickScat missed it I think.

Just as Bill is on the way out, looks like we got another disterbance to keep our eyes on. Man, i love weather! Lets just hope if anything forms it will be a fish.

Quoting Relix:
The wave is at 54W, QuickScat missed it I think.

it missed most of it
if there was something on the surface a few west winds would have been observed at 55w but there is nothing so for the moment everything is cool xD

Quoting bwat:
Just as Bill is on the way out, looks like we got another disterbance to keep our eyes on. Man, i love weather! Lets just hope if anything forms it will be a fish.

Disturbance........guess i need a refresher in spelling.

Have any of the bloggers from N.S and Newfoundland checked in?

Wondering how it is going on the ground.