AllStar17's WunderBlog
Invest 93E likely to form into a tropical cyclone; Atlantic showing signs of life?
Posted by: AllStar17, 06:22 PM GMT am 06. Juli 2011 +1
TROPICAL UPDATE
Invest 93E getting better organized and likely to become Calvin over the next few days
A rather compact, yet decently organized, area of low pressure about 300 miles SSE of Acapulco (Invest 93E) has been gradually getting better organized over the past couple of days. As of the 2:00 pm National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, Invest 93E was given a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours, and I do expect that Calvin will form from this area over the next few days. Satellite images reveal an organizing area of disturbed weather that appears poised for development, but does not yet have a well-defined area of low pressure and sufficient convective organization to warrant classification. However, environmental conditions are favorable for further development and most of the intensity models do show would-be Calvin reaching at least tropical storm intensity. The good news with this system is that all of the forecast models take it well offshore of the Mexican coast and out to sea. After enduring impacts from former storms Adrian, and more directly Beatriz earlier in the season, the Mexican coast can finally relax with this one, as whatever forms from Invest 93E is not a threat to land.


Figure 1. The current satellite image of an organizing Invest 93E.

Atlantic remains quiet
After a brief, but strong tropical storm (Arlene) made landfall last week very near Tampico, Mexico, the Atlantic has not had anymore activity and still remains quiet today and none of the global models indicate any significant development over the next few days. However, there are a few areas worth watching. A large area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, Cuba, South Florida, and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low interacting with a tropical wave. This area will be moving slowly north and does not appear likely to be much of a threat for development. This is the same disturbance that was trying to develop an area of low pressure yesterday near Cat Island in the Bahamas but failed to do so because of unfavorable conditions. The National Hurricane Center gives this a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I'd give this area a near 0% chance for development. Another tropical wave near 40W and south of 10N may need to be watched for trouble down the road in the Caribbean. Conditions may be favorable if it can avoid too much land interaction with the South American coast. The National Hurricane Center has not mentioned this area in their Tropical Weather Outlook, and it is just simply something to keep an eye on right now.

I'll try to have another entry tomorrow.
AllStar
Updated: 06:24 PM GMT am 06. Juli 2011   Permalink | A A A
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Invests 93L and 94L threats to develop; Estelle and Dianmu in the Pacific
Posted by: AllStar17, 06:49 PM GMT am 09. August 2010 +2
TROPICAL UPDATEAs we begin to enter the most active portion of the hurricane season, the tropics are quite active. Today, we are tracking two Atlantic invests with potential, and Tropical Storms Estelle (Eastern) and Dianmu (Western) in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Colin, which we have been watching for the past several days, has dissipated just NW of Bermuda and is not a threat for regeneration.Invest 93L could become a tropical depression at any time over the nex...
Updated: 06:53 PM GMT am 09. August 2010   Permalink | A A A
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Conson to weaken; Tropical Depression Six-E forms well offshore of Mexico
Posted by: AllStar17, 01:26 AM GMT am 15. Juli 2010 +1
TROPICAL UPDATEAtlantic remains relatively quietThe Atlantic remains in its period of quietness after Hurricane Alex and Tropical Depression Two formed in late June and early July. There is a relatively strong tropical wave that has recently emerged off Africa and it needs to be watched as it moves westward. There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss at this time. However, the NOGAPS model, as well as a few other models, do predict that a strong t...
Updated: 01:28 AM GMT am 15. Juli 2010   Permalink | A A A
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Conson to weaken; Tropical Depression Six-E forms well offshore of Mexico
Posted by: AllStar17, 01:26 AM GMT am 15. Juli 2010 +1
TROPICAL UPDATEAtlantic remains relatively quietThe Atlantic remains in its period of quietness after Hurricane Alex and Tropical Depression Two formed in late June and early July. There is a relatively strong tropical wave that has recently emerged off Africa and it needs to be watched as it moves westward. There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss at this time. However, the NOGAPS model, as well as a few other models, do predict that a strong t...
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Western Pacific finally gets a cyclone; Eastern Pacific disturbance 96E may develop
Posted by: AllStar17, 06:27 PM GMT am 12. Juli 2010 +1
TROPICAL UPDATEAtlantic Basin relatively quiet; enjoy it while it lasts!After having 2 systems form (Hurricane Alex and TD 2 - Figure 1), the Atlantic is relatively quiet at this time. As we are now entering the mid part of July, our attention will begin to shift farther east in the tropical Atlantic. We currently have a rather strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa, and another rather potent wave behind that one. Neither wave is an imminent threat to devel...
Updated: 07:17 PM GMT am 12. Juli 2010   Permalink | A A A
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